Newington Youth v H&W Welders prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Newington YouthDrawH&W Welders

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Newington Youth 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Newington Youth just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Newington Youth 40%, draw 20%, H&W Welders 40%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 75%.

The AI’s read on Newington Youth v H&W WeldersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Newington Youth win40%

Draw20%

H&W Welders win40%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Newington Youth

H&W Welders

7Days since last match6

Last match: 23 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

Last match: 24 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newington youth winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Newington Youth a 40% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–2.1, and 2–2 is the single most likely score at 7%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Newington Youth v H&W Welders~~2.08 – 2.06

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 26 v 16~~1 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Newington Youth win	40%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
H&W Welders win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	77%	–	–
Both teams to score	75%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	91%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	59%	–	–
Newington Youth or draw	60%	–	–
Newington Youth clean sheet	13%	–	–
H&W Welders clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 7.0%

0123450 3.4 3.5 2.4 1 3.4 6.9 7.0 4.8 2.5 2 3.5 7.0 7.0 4.8 2.5 3 2.4 4.8 4.8 3.3 4 2.5 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Newington Youth down, H&W Welders across0–5 goals a side shown (95.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,246 Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Newington Youth at home: 3.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). H&W Welders away: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.08 goals for Newington Youth, 2.06 for H&W Welders. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEW 2–4 HAN · HAN 2–1 NEW · NEW 2–1 HAN · HAN 3–2 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 19 Sept

NEWINGTON YOUTH

LWLLWW0–1 · 4–0 · 0–7 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 2–0

H&W WELDERS

LLLDLL1–3 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Newington Youth	13	+7	26
2	Annagh United	12	+13	25
3	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	+2	21
5	Queen's University	12	+12	20
6	Institute	12	+5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	−2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	+4	18
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
10	Ards	12	−1	15
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12
14	Dundela	12	−5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	−11	10
16	Armagh City	12	−11	5