Moyola Park v Newington Youth prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 23:01

Moyola Park 2–3 Newington Youth NEWINGTON YOUTH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Newington Youth win~~46%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.448

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.400

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Newington Youth are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Moyola Park 33%, draw 21%, Newington Youth 46%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Moyola Park v Newington YouthBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Moyola Park win33%

Draw21%

Newington Youth win46%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Moyola Park

Newington Youth

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

Last match: 9 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Newington Youth	11	+4	20
11	Moyola Park	11	−9	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · newington youth winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:04 · locked at kick-off

46% The market48%

Us46%

~~Market~~48%

We make Newington Youth a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Moyola Park v Newington Youth~~1.71 – 2.04

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 20~~11 v 3

~~The market · Newington Youth win~~48% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Newington Youth win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Moyola Park win	33%	27%	+6
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Newington Youth win	46%	48%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	72%	63%	+9
Both teams to score	70%	64%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	88%	82%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	51%	43%	+8
Moyola Park or draw	54%	52%	+2
Moyola Park clean sheet	14%	–	–
Newington Youth clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.6 4.9 5.0 3.3 1 4.1 8.3 8.2 5.5 2.9 2 3.5 6.9 6.9 4.6 2.4 3 2.0 3.9 3.9 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Moyola Park down, Newington Youth across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,236 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2019/20 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Moyola Park at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Newington Youth away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Moyola Park, 2.04 for Newington Youth. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2019/20

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NEW 5–2 MOY · MOY 2–2 NEW · MOY 1–2 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

MOYOLA PARK

LLDWLW1–4 · 2–6 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

NEWINGTON YOUTH

WDLWLL1–0 · 5–5 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–7 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	11	+11	22
2	Glenavon FC	11	+12	21
3	Newington Youth	11	+4	20
4	Queen's University	11	+12	19
5	Newry City AFC	11	0	18
6	Warrenpoint Town	11	+4	17
7	Institute	11	+3	17
8	Ballinamallard United	11	+1	17
9	H&W Welders	11	+2	16
10	Ards	11	+1	15
11	Moyola Park	11	−9	14
12	Loughgall	11	−6	13
13	Dundela	11	−4	11
14	Strabane Athletic	11	−10	9
15	Rathfriland	11	−12	9
16	Armagh City	11	−9	5