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Loughgall v Moyola Park

Loughgall

1–2Full time

Moyola Park

Championship · SAT 10 OCT · Lakeview Park

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Loughgall 1–2 Moyola Park LOUGHGALL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Loughgall win~~54%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.964

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.010

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Loughgall win54%

Draw24%

Moyola Park win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Lakeview Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · loughgall winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

54% The market56%

Us54%

~~Market~~56%

We make Loughgall a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · loughgall win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Loughgall win	54%	56%	−2
Draw	24%	23%	0
Moyola Park win	22%	20%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	51%	59%	−8
Both teams to score	51%	58%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	75%	80%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	38%	−9
Loughgall or draw	78%	80%	−2
Loughgall clean sheet	37%	–	–
Moyola Park clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.3%

0123450 6.8 6.5 3.3 1 11.3 11.1 5.5 2 9.7 9.5 4.7 3 5.6 5.5 2.8 4 2.5 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Loughgall down, Moyola Park across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,231 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Loughgall at home: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Moyola Park away: 1.25 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.74 goals for Loughgall, 1.00 for Moyola Park. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Championship

LOUGHGALL

DLLDLW3–3 · 1–6 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–1

MOYOLA PARK

WLLDWL1–0 · 1–4 · 2–6 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	10	+11	21
2	Glenavon FC	10	+12	20
3	Newington Youth	11	+4	20
4	Queen's University	10	+13	19
5	Newry City AFC	11	0	18
6	Institute	10	+3	16
7	H&W Welders	10	+2	15
8	Ards	11	+1	15
9	Warrenpoint Town	10	+3	14
10	Ballinamallard United	10	0	14
11	Loughgall	10	−5	13
12	Dundela	11	−4	11
13	Moyola Park	10	−10	11
14	Strabane Athletic	10	−9	9
15	Rathfriland	11	−12	9
16	Armagh City	11	−9	5