Institute v Moyola Park prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

InstituteDrawMoyola Park

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Institute 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Institute are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Institute 57%, draw 21%, Moyola Park 21%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Institute v Moyola ParkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Institute win57%

Draw21%

Moyola Park win21%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Institute

Moyola Park

11Days since last match11

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Institute	12	+5	20
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · institute winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Institute a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Institute v Moyola Park~~2.03 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 14~~6 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Institute win	57%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Moyola Park win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Institute or draw	79%	–	–
Institute clean sheet	32%	–	–
Moyola Park clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.4 4.8 2.8 1 8.4 9.7 5.5 2.2 2 8.5 9.6 5.5 2.2 3 5.7 6.5 3.7 4 3.0 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Institute down, Moyola Park across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,249 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Institute at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Moyola Park away: 1.40 scored, 2.20 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

2.03 goals for Institute, 1.16 for Moyola Park. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

INSTITUTE

WWLWDW5–3 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 7–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

MOYOLA PARK

LDWLWL2–6 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	13	+17	28
2	Newington Youth	13	+7	26
3	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	+2	21
5	Queen's University	13	+8	20
6	Institute	12	+5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	−2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	+4	18
9	Loughgall	13	−5	17
10	Ards	13	−1	16
11	H&W Welders	13	−3	16
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12
14	Dundela	12	−5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	−11	10
16	Armagh City	13	−11	6