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Institute v H&W Welders

Institute

0–0Full time

H&W Welders

Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

Institute 0–0 H&W Welders H&W WELDERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said H&W Welders win~~39%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.911

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.872

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Match events aren’t available for this match.

Pre-match prediction

Institute win39%

Draw22%

H&W Welders win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · h&w welders winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

39% The market44%

Us39%

~~Market~~44%

We make H&W Welders a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · h&w welders win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Institute win	39%	31%	+7
Draw	22%	24%	−2
H&W Welders win	39%	44%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	68%	63%	+5
Both teams to score	68%	65%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	86%	81%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	47%	43%	+4
Institute or draw	61%	56%	+5
Institute clean sheet	18%	–	–
H&W Welders clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.2 5.3 4.7 2.7 1 5.3 9.1 7.9 4.7 2.1 2 4.6 7.9 6.8 4.0 3 2.7 4.6 4.0 2.4 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Institute down, H&W Welders across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,231 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

17 previous meetings, 3.06 goals a meeting; 11 of 17 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Institute at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). H&W Welders away: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Institute, 1.77 for H&W Welders. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

17 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.06

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 17

~~Both scored~~10 of 17

~~Last meetings~~HAN 1–4 INS · INS 0–4 HAN · HAN 2–1 INS · INS 1–1 HAN

Form · last six in Championship

INSTITUTE

LWWWLW1–3 · 2–0 · 5–3 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 7–0

H&W WELDERS

WWLLLL2–0 · 4–1 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	10	+11	21
2	Glenavon FC	10	+12	20
3	Newington Youth	11	+4	20
4	Queen's University	10	+13	19
5	Newry City AFC	11	0	18
6	Institute	10	+3	16
7	H&W Welders	10	+2	15
8	Ards	11	+1	15
9	Warrenpoint Town	10	+3	14
10	Ballinamallard United	10	0	14
11	Loughgall	10	−5	13
12	Dundela	11	−4	11
13	Moyola Park	10	−10	11
14	Strabane Athletic	10	−9	9
15	Rathfriland	11	−12	9
16	Armagh City	11	−9	5