Institute v Dundela prediction · Championship

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Institute are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Institute 58%, draw 21%, Dundela 21%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Institute v DundelaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

Institute win58%

Draw21%

Dundela win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Institute

Dundela

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Institute	12	+5	20
14	Dundela	12	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · institute winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · postponed, not graded

58% The market–

Us58%

We make Institute a 58% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Institute v Dundela~~2.12 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 20 v 11~~6 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Institute win	58%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Dundela win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Institute or draw	79%	–	–
Institute clean sheet	31%	–	–
Dundela clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.9 4.4 2.7 1 7.8 9.2 5.4 2.2 2 8.2 9.5 5.6 2.2 3 5.8 6.7 3.9 4 3.1 3.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Institute down, Dundela across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,246 Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.30 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Institute at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dundela away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Institute, 1.18 for Dundela. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.30

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~10 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DUN 1–2 INS · INS 2–1 DUN · INS 1–1 DUN · DUN 2–2 INS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

INSTITUTE

WWLWDW5–3 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 7–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

DUNDELA

DDWLLL5–5 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Newington Youth	13	+7	26
2	Annagh United	12	+13	25
3	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	+2	21
5	Queen's University	12	+12	20
6	Institute	12	+5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	−2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	+4	18
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
10	Ards	12	−1	15
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12
14	Dundela	12	−5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	−11	10
16	Armagh City	12	−11	5