H&W Welders v Loughgall prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

H&W Welders 1–2 Loughgall H&W WELDERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said H&W Welders win~~48%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.803

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.834

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

H&W Welders are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: H&W Welders 48%, draw 24%, Loughgall 28%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on H&W Welders v LoughgallBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

H&W Welders win48%

Draw24%

Loughgall win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

H&W Welders

Loughgall

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · h&w welders winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market49%

Us48%

~~Market~~49%

We make H&W Welders a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · H&W Welders v Loughgall~~1.73 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~9 v 11

~~The market · H&W Welders win~~49% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · H&W Welders win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
H&W Welders win	48%	49%	−1
Draw	24%	24%	0
Loughgall win	28%	27%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	62%	−5
Both teams to score	58%	63%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	41%	−6
H&W Welders or draw	72%	73%	−1
H&W Welders clean sheet	29%	–	–
Loughgall clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.3 6.4 4.1 1 8.7 10.9 6.8 2.9 2 7.5 9.2 5.8 2.5 3 4.3 5.3 3.3 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+H&W Welders down, Loughgall across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,246 Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

H&W Welders at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Loughgall away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for H&W Welders, 1.26 for Loughgall. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LOU 2–0 HAN · HAN 2–1 LOU · HAN 1–1 LOU · LOU 1–2 HAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

H&W WELDERS

LLLLDL1–3 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 0–0 · 0–4

LOUGHGALL

LDLWLD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Newington Youth	13	+7	26
2	Annagh United	12	+13	25
3	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	+2	21
5	Queen's University	12	+12	20
6	Institute	12	+5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	−2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	+4	18
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
10	Ards	12	−1	15
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12
14	Dundela	12	−5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	−11	10
16	Armagh City	12	−11	5