Dundela v Warrenpoint Town prediction · Championship

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

DundelaDrawWarrenpoint Town

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Warrenpoint Town 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Warrenpoint Town are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dundela 34%, draw 24%, Warrenpoint Town 41%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Dundela v Warrenpoint TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Dundela win34%

Draw24%

Warrenpoint Town win41%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dundela

Warrenpoint Town

11Days since last match10

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

Last match: 21 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	+4	18
14	Dundela	12	−5	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · warrenpoint town winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Warrenpoint Town a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dundela v Warrenpoint Town~~1.39 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 18~~14 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dundela win	34%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Warrenpoint Town win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Dundela or draw	59%	–	–
Dundela clean sheet	22%	–	–
Warrenpoint Town clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.6 8.2 6.4 3.3 1 7.3 11.3 8.6 4.5 2 5.1 7.7 5.9 3.1 3 2.4 3.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dundela down, Warrenpoint Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,249 Championship matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.4% of games this season, across 101 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.38 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dundela at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Warrenpoint Town away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Dundela, 1.55 for Warrenpoint Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~DUN 2–0 WAR · WAR 5–2 DUN · DUN 3–2 WAR · WAR 3–1 DUN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

DUNDELA

DDWLLL5–5 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–1

WARRENPOINT TOWN

WLWDWD6–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	13	+17	28
2	Newington Youth	13	+7	26
3	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	+2	21
5	Queen's University	13	+8	20
6	Institute	12	+5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	−2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	+4	18
9	Loughgall	13	−5	17
10	Ards	13	−1	16
11	H&W Welders	13	−3	16
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12
14	Dundela	12	−5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	−11	10
16	Armagh City	13	−11	6