Dundela v Rathfriland prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Dundela 0–1 Rathfriland DUNDELA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dundela win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.695

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dundela are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dundela 44%, draw 23%, Rathfriland 33%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Dundela v RathfrilandBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dundela win44%

Draw23%

Rathfriland win33%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dundela

Rathfriland

8Days since last match8

Last match: 9 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Dundela	11	−4	11
15	Rathfriland	11	−12	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dundela winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Dundela a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dundela v Rathfriland~~1.76 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~13 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dundela win	44%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Rathfriland win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Dundela or draw	67%	–	–
Dundela clean sheet	23%	–	–
Rathfriland clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.1 5.7 4.3 2.2 1 6.8 10.1 7.4 3.7 2 6.0 8.7 6.4 3.2 3 3.5 5.1 3.8 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dundela down, Rathfriland across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,240 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.8% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Dundela at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rathfriland away: 1.20 scored, 2.60 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Dundela, 1.50 for Rathfriland. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

DUNDELA

WDDWLL3–2 · 5–5 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–3

RATHFRILAND

LLWLWW0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
2	Newington Youth	12	+5	23
3	Annagh United	11	+11	22
4	Institute	12	+5	20
5	Queen's University	11	+12	19
6	Newry City AFC	11	0	18
7	Warrenpoint Town	11	+4	17
8	Ballinamallard United	11	+1	17
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
10	Ards	12	−1	15
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Dundela	11	−4	11
14	Strabane Athletic	12	−10	10
15	Rathfriland	11	−12	9
16	Armagh City	11	−9	5