Ballinamallard United v Warrenpoint Town prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Ballinamallard United 2–2 Warrenpoint Town BALLINAMALLARD UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ballinamallard United win~~38%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.804

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.797

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ballinamallard United just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ballinamallard United 38%, draw 27%, Warrenpoint Town 35%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Ballinamallard United v Warrenpoint TownBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ballinamallard United win38%

Draw27%

Warrenpoint Town win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ballinamallard United

Warrenpoint Town

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Warrenpoint Town	11	+4	17
8	Ballinamallard United	11	+1	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ballinamallard united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make Ballinamallard United a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ballinamallard United v Warrenpoint Town~~1.31 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 17~~8 v 7

~~The market · Ballinamallard United win~~42% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ballinamallard United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ballinamallard United win	38%	42%	−4
Draw	27%	27%	0
Warrenpoint Town win	35%	31%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	47%	53%	−6
Both teams to score	52%	57%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	26%	33%	−7
Ballinamallard United or draw	65%	69%	−4
Ballinamallard United clean sheet	29%	–	–
Warrenpoint Town clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 8.1 9.6 6.1 2.6 1 10.0 12.6 7.7 3.3 2 6.6 8.1 5.0 2.1 3 2.9 3.6 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ballinamallard United down, Warrenpoint Town across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,240 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 59.8% of games this season, across 92 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ballinamallard United at home: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Warrenpoint Town away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Ballinamallard United, 1.25 for Warrenpoint Town. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~BAL 0–1 WAR · WAR 1–0 BAL · BAL 0–4 WAR · WAR 4–1 BAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 5 Sept

BALLINAMALLARD UNITED

WDWLDW6–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–0

WARRENPOINT TOWN

LWLWDW0–1 · 6–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
2	Newington Youth	12	+5	23
3	Annagh United	11	+11	22
4	Institute	12	+5	20
5	Queen's University	11	+12	19
6	Newry City AFC	11	0	18
7	Warrenpoint Town	11	+4	17
8	Ballinamallard United	11	+1	17
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
10	Ards	12	−1	15
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Dundela	11	−4	11
14	Strabane Athletic	12	−10	10
15	Rathfriland	11	−12	9
16	Armagh City	11	−9	5