Armagh City v Ards prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

Armagh City 1–1 Ards ARDS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ards win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.004

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ards are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Armagh City 20%, draw 21%, Ards 59%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Armagh City v ArdsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Armagh City win20%

Draw21%

Ards win59%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Armagh City

Ards

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · the Northern Irish League Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Ards	12	−1	15
16	Armagh City	12	−11	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ards winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Ards a 59% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Armagh City v Ards~~1.09 – 2.02

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 15~~16 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Armagh City win	20%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Ards win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	60%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	38%	–	–
Armagh City or draw	41%	–	–
Armagh City clean sheet	14%	–	–
Ards clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 4.7 9.0 9.0 6.1 3.1 1 4.9 9.8 9.7 6.5 3.3 2 2.7 5.3 5.3 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Armagh City down, Ards across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,246 Championship matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 58.2% of games this season, across 98 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.29 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Armagh City at home: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Ards away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Armagh City, 2.02 for Ards. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.29

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ARD 2–1 ARM · ARM 0–8 ARD · ARM 1–0 ARD · ARD 2–1 ARM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 12 Sept

ARMAGH CITY

LDLDLL3–5 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–3

ARDS

WDLDWL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Newington Youth	13	+7	26
2	Annagh United	12	+13	25
3	Glenavon FC	12	+16	24
4	Ballinamallard United	13	+2	21
5	Queen's University	12	+12	20
6	Institute	12	+5	20
7	Newry City AFC	13	−2	19
8	Warrenpoint Town	12	+4	18
9	H&W Welders	12	−2	16
10	Ards	12	−1	15
11	Loughgall	12	−6	14
12	Moyola Park	12	−10	14
13	Rathfriland	12	−11	12
14	Dundela	12	−5	11
15	Strabane Athletic	13	−11	10
16	Armagh City	12	−11	5