Ards v Institute prediction · Championship

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 23:01

Ards 0–2 Institute ARDS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ards win~~39%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.626

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.646

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Ards just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ards 39%, draw 25%, Institute 36%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Ards v InstituteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Ards win39%

Draw25%

Institute win36%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:45

RoundMatchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ards

Institute

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

Last match: 10 Oct · the Northern Irish Championship

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Institute	11	+3	17
10	Ards	11	+1	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ards winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

39% The market39%

Us39%

~~Market~~39%

We make Ards a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.4–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ards v Institute~~1.44 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Championship this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 17~~10 v 7

~~The market · Ards win~~39% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ards win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ards win	39%	39%	0
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Institute win	36%	35%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	55%	−2
Both teams to score	57%	59%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	77%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	35%	−4
Ards or draw	64%	65%	−1
Ards clean sheet	26%	–	–
Institute clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.3 8.2 5.7 2.6 1 8.6 11.8 8.0 3.7 2 6.2 8.4 5.7 2.7 3 3.0 4.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ards down, Institute across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,236 Championship matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 60.2% of games this season, across 88 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ards at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Institute away: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Ards, 1.38 for Institute. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~INS 3–1 ARD · ARD 0–0 INS · ARD 0–3 INS · INS 2–2 ARD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Championship this season · since 4 Sept

ARDS

LWDLDW1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0

INSTITUTE

WWWLWD2–0 · 5–3 · 2–0 · 0–5 · 7–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	11	+11	22
2	Glenavon FC	11	+12	21
3	Newington Youth	11	+4	20
4	Queen's University	11	+12	19
5	Newry City AFC	11	0	18
6	Warrenpoint Town	11	+4	17
7	Institute	11	+3	17
8	Ballinamallard United	11	+1	17
9	H&W Welders	11	+2	16
10	Ards	11	+1	15
11	Moyola Park	11	−9	14
12	Loughgall	11	−6	13
13	Dundela	11	−4	11
14	Strabane Athletic	11	−10	9
15	Rathfriland	11	−12	9
16	Armagh City	11	−9	5