Home › Football › Championship › Annagh United v Glenavon FC

Annagh United v Glenavon FC

Annagh United

1–1Full time

Glenavon FC

Championship · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Annagh United 1–1 Glenavon FC ANNAGH UNITED WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Annagh United win~~50%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.919

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.824

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Annagh United win50%

Draw23%

Glenavon FC win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · annagh united winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

50% The market38%

Us50%

~~Market~~38%

We make Annagh United a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · annagh united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Annagh United win	50%	38%	+11
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Glenavon FC win	28%	36%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	60%	58%	+2
Both teams to score	60%	61%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	79%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	38%	+1
Annagh United or draw	72%	64%	+8
Annagh United clean sheet	28%	–	–
Glenavon FC clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.7 5.8 3.8 1 8.1 10.3 6.6 2.9 2 7.3 9.2 6.0 2.6 3 4.5 5.6 3.6 4 2.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Annagh United down, Glenavon FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,231 Championship matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Championship matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.7% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Annagh United at home: 2.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Glenavon FC away: 2.40 scored, 1.40 conceded (last 5).

What the model expects

1.83 goals for Annagh United, 1.30 for Glenavon FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Championship

ANNAGH UNITED

WWWDWD3–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 5–0 · 1–1

GLENAVON FC

WLDWWW3–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Annagh United	10	+11	21
2	Glenavon FC	10	+12	20
3	Newington Youth	11	+4	20
4	Queen's University	10	+13	19
5	Newry City AFC	11	0	18
6	Institute	10	+3	16
7	H&W Welders	10	+2	15
8	Ards	11	+1	15
9	Warrenpoint Town	10	+3	14
10	Ballinamallard United	10	0	14
11	Loughgall	10	−5	13
12	Dundela	11	−4	11
13	Moyola Park	10	−10	11
14	Strabane Athletic	10	−9	9
15	Rathfriland	11	−12	9
16	Armagh City	11	−9	5