Warri Wolves v Kano Pillars prediction · NPFL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Warri WolvesDrawKano Pillars

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Warri Wolves 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Warri Wolves are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Warri Wolves 57%, draw 27%, Kano Pillars 16%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Warri Wolves v Kano PillarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Warri Wolves win57%

Draw27%

Kano Pillars win16%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueWarri Township Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Warri Wolves

Kano Pillars

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · NPFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Kano Pillars	9	+1	14
14	Warri Wolves	9	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · warri wolves winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Warri Wolves a 57% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Warri Wolves v Kano Pillars~~1.46 – 0.62

~~Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 23 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 14~~14 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Warri Wolves win	57%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Kano Pillars win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Warri Wolves or draw	84%	–	–
Warri Wolves clean sheet	54%	–	–
Kano Pillars clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.1%

0123450 12.8 7.7 2.4 1 18.1 11.4 3.5 2 13.3 8.2 2.5 3 6.5 4.0 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Warri Wolves down, Kano Pillars across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,804 NPFL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Warri Wolves at home: 1.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kano Pillars away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Warri Wolves, 0.62 for Kano Pillars. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAN 1–0 WAR · WAR 0–0 KAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 23 Sept

WARRI WOLVES

DWLLWD0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–0

KANO PILLARS

DDDDLW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–4 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rivers United	9	+11	17
2	Enugu Rangers	8	+5	17
3	Plateau United	10	+4	15
4	Sporting Lagos	9	+2	15
5	Barau FC	9	+3	14
6	Nasarawa United	9	+2	14
7	Kano Pillars	9	+1	14
8	Doma United	9	0	14
9	Katsina United	10	−2	13
10	Ikorodu City	9	+2	12
11	Bendel Insurance	8	+1	12
12	Niger Tornadoes	9	0	12
13	Kwara United	9	0	11
14	Warri Wolves	9	−1	11
15	Shooting Stars	9	−2	11
16	Abia Warriors	9	−3	10
17	Kun Khalifat FC	9	−7	9
18	Enyimba	9	−3	8
19	Ranchers Bees	9	−3	8
20	Inter Lagos	9	−13	2