Sporting Lagos v Bendel Insurance prediction · NPFL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Sporting Lagos 2–1 Bendel Insurance SPORTING LAGOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sporting Lagos win~~56%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.302

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.340

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sporting Lagos win at 56%.
1′A goal for Bendel Insurance on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–28–45
1′KICK-OFF Sporting Lagos v Bendel Insurance
2′A goal for Bendel Insurance on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–28–45
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 2' Sporting Lagos win: 56% at kick-off, 28% now
2′THE CALL SWINGS · 2' Bendel Insurance win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Sporting Lagos win 28%)
15′⚽ GOAL · 14' Sporting Lagos 1–1 Bendel Insurance
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Bendel Insurance
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Sporting Lagos 2–1 Bendel Insurance
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Sporting Lagos win: 56% at kick-off, 28% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Bendel Insurance win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Sporting Lagos win 28%)
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Sporting Lagos win: 56% at kick-off, 28% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Bendel Insurance win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Sporting Lagos win 28%)
45′HALF-TIME Sporting Lagos 2–1 Bendel Insurance
46′SECOND HALF Sporting Lagos 2–1 Bendel Insurance
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Bendel Insurance
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Sporting Lagos
FTFULL TIME Sporting Lagos 2–1 Bendel Insurance
FTSporting Lagos 2–1 Bendel Insurance · Sporting Lagos win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sporting Lagos win56%

Draw27%

Bendel Insurance win17%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueMobolaji Johnson Arena

Line-ups

Sporting Lagos

Bendel Insurance

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sporting Lagos

Bendel Insurance

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027/28

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Bendel Insurance	7	+2	12
11	Sporting Lagos	7	0	9

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sporting Lagos

Formation not confirmed

35 E. Harcourt

2 U. Solomon

4 S. Ayoade

5 A. Idakwo

12 A. Mohammed

6 A. J. Adeede

10 V. Samuel

16 H. Haruna

20 G. Olaniya

8 V. Ugwu

14 J. Ajibola

Coach · Abdullahi Biffo

Substitutes

1 · C. Lawani

3 · H. Zion

19 · I. Okokon

13 · O. Okoro

26 · S. Batunba

17 · L. Adigun

9 · A. Baba

30 · J. Emmauel

28 · D. Aboh

Bendel Insurance

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Obasogie

28 G. Lekan

4 J. Emiloju

35 C. Amaefule

30 A. Adekunle

13 F. Wuchirwe

37 E. Ubiomo

11 C. Nwosu

25 E. Dung

6 A. Oweilayefa

21 K. Oke Solomon

Coach · Greg Ikhenoba

Substitutes

32 · J. Orysa

24 · E. Nwokeji

8 · F. Abdullahi

3 · H. Onyia

9 · L. Suraju

7 · U. Wisdom

10 · J. Naisa

27 · S. Usman

22 · T. Shimagande

Our number · sporting lagos winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

56% The market53%

Us56%

~~Market~~53%

We make Sporting Lagos a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sporting lagos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sporting Lagos win	56%	53%	+3
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Bendel Insurance win	17%	19%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	35%	41%	−7
Both teams to score	37%	44%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	62%	66%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	16%	22%	−6
Sporting Lagos or draw	83%	81%	+2
Sporting Lagos clean sheet	52%	–	–
Bendel Insurance clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.7%

0123450 12.6 8.2 2.7 1 17.7 11.6 3.8 2 12.6 8.3 2.7 3 6.0 4.0 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sporting Lagos down, Bendel Insurance across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,787 NPFL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sporting Lagos at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Bendel Insurance away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Sporting Lagos, 0.66 for Bendel Insurance. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–0 BEN · BEN 3–1 SPO

Form · last six in NPFL

SPORTING LAGOS

WLWDDD3–0 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

BENDEL INSURANCE

LWLWLW0–1 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–1

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enugu Rangers	7	+5	16
2	Rivers United	7	+11	15
3	Doma United	7	+2	13
4	Barau FC	7	+3	12
5	Ikorodu City	8	+3	12
6	Bendel Insurance	7	+2	12
7	Katsina United	8	−1	12
8	Kano Pillars	7	+4	11
9	Plateau United	7	+1	11
10	Kwara United	8	0	10
11	Sporting Lagos	7	0	9
12	Niger Tornadoes	8	−1	9
13	Ranchers Bees	8	−1	8
14	Shooting Stars	7	−2	8
15	Nasarawa United	7	−2	8
16	Abia Warriors	7	−3	8
17	Enyimba	8	−3	7
18	Warri Wolves	7	−3	7
19	Inter Lagos	7	−6	5
20	Kun Khalifat FC	7	−9	5