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Shooting Stars v Ranchers Bees

Shooting Stars
3–1Full time
Ranchers Bees

NPFL · FRI 16 OCT · Lekan Salami Stadium

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01
Shooting Stars 3–1 Ranchers Bees SHOOTING STARS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Shooting Stars win61%
The market said61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.232
The market’s Brier score0.237

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shooting Stars win at 61%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Shooting Stars was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–25–14
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Shooting Stars v Ranchers Bees
  4. 13′We published Shooting Stars at 61%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–11–3
  5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Shooting Stars 1–0 Ranchers Bees
  6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Shooting Stars win: 61% at kick-off, 86% now
  7. 15′Shooting Stars find the net on 14′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–11–3
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 86–12–3
  9. 37′We said Shooting Stars at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–37–14
  10. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Shooting Stars 1–1 Ranchers Bees
  11. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Shooting Stars win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
  12. 38′A goal for Ranchers Bees on 38′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 48–38–14
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Shooting Stars 2–1 Ranchers Bees
  14. 46′We said Shooting Stars at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–42–13
  15. 47′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 87–11–2
  16. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Shooting Stars 2–1 Ranchers Bees
  17. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Shooting Stars win: 61% at kick-off, 87% now
  18. 48′Shooting Stars score on 45′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 87–12–2
  19. 48′HALF-TIME Shooting Stars 2–1 Ranchers Bees
  20. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 51' Ranchers Bees
  21. 53′PENALTY MISSED · 53' Shooting Stars
  22. 64′🟨 YELLOW · 51' S. Faisal · Ranchers Bees
  23. 66′We published Shooting Stars at 61%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  24. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Shooting Stars · On: Q. Adegoke · Off: T. Otaniyi
  25. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Shooting Stars · On: A. Dalhatu · Off: R. O. Olanrewaju
  26. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Shooting Stars · On: L. Emmanuel · Off: D. Akinola
  27. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Ranchers Bees
  28. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Shooting Stars win: 61% at kick-off, 91% now
  29. 71′We published Shooting Stars at 61%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
  30. 71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Shooting Stars 3–1 Ranchers Bees
  31. 72′Shooting Stars find the net on 72′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–0–0
  32. 72′4 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–0–0
  33. 73′We published Shooting Stars at 61%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  34. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Shooting Stars
  35. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Shooting Stars
  36. 94′Full time, 3–1. We called Shooting Stars at 61% — that one lands. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  37. FTFULL TIME Shooting Stars 3–1 Ranchers Bees
  38. FTShooting Stars 3–1 Ranchers Bees · Shooting Stars win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shooting Stars are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shooting Stars 61%, draw 25%, Ranchers Bees 14%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Shooting Stars v Ranchers BeesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Shooting Stars win61%
Draw25%
Ranchers Bees win14%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueLekan Salami Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shooting Stars

Ranchers Bees

5Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · NPFL

Last match: 10 Oct · NPFL

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
16Ranchers Bees8−18
17Shooting Stars8−48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shooting stars winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
61% The market61%
Us61%
Market61%

We make Shooting Stars a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.6–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Shooting Stars v Ranchers Bees1.60 – 0.62
Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 13 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 8 v 817 v 16
The market · Shooting Stars win61% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65% 12 OCT 04:0316 OCT 17:40
Our probability · Shooting Stars win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Shooting Stars win61%61%0
Draw25%26%−1
Ranchers Bees win14%13%+1
Over 2.5 goals38%37%+1
Both teams to score37%36%+1
Over 1.5 goals65%61%+4
Over 3.5 goals19%19%0
Shooting Stars or draw86%87%−1
Shooting Stars clean sheet54%––
Ranchers Bees clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.3%
0123450 11.0 6.7 2.1 1 17.3 10.8 3.3 2 13.8 8.5 2.7 3 7.4 4.6 4 3.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Shooting Stars down, Ranchers Bees across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 13 Sept

SHOOTING STARS

WLLDDL2–0 · 0–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

RANCHERS BEES

LWLDLD1–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enugu Rangers8+517
2Rivers United8+1116
3Plateau United8+514
4Barau FC8+313
5Doma United8013
6Ikorodu City8+312
7Bendel Insurance8+112
8Sporting Lagos8+112
9Katsina United8−112
10Kano Pillars8011
11Nasarawa United8011
12Kwara United8010
13Warri Wolves8−110
14Niger Tornadoes8−19
15Abia Warriors8−39
16Ranchers Bees8−18
17Shooting Stars8−48
18Kun Khalifat FC8−78
19Enyimba8−37
20Inter Lagos8−85

The competition's standings before kick-off.