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Model 1.2

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Rivers United v Barau FC

Rivers United
0–0Full time
Barau FC

NPFL · SUN 18 OCT · Yakubu Gowon Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Rivers United 0–0 Barau FC RIVERS UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Rivers United win63%
The market said67%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.971
The market’s Brier score1.035

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Rivers United win at 63%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Rivers United 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–25–12
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Rivers United v Barau FC
  4. 21′Rivers United score on 21′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 88–10–2
  5. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Rivers United 1–0 Barau FC
  6. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Rivers United win: 63% at kick-off, 88% now
  7. 22′We said Rivers United at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 88%. 1–0 · 88–10–2
  8. 22′GOAL DISALLOWED · 22' Rivers United
  9. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Rivers United win: 63% at kick-off, 56% now
  10. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Rivers United win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
  11. 34′We said Rivers United at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–37–12
  12. 38′We said Rivers United at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–39–12
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Rivers United 0–0 Barau FC
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Rivers United 0–0 Barau FC
  15. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Rivers United win: 63% at kick-off, 45% now
  16. 47′We said Rivers United at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–45–11
  17. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Rivers United win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
  18. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Rivers United win 42%)
  19. 55′We said Rivers United at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–51–10
  20. 62′We said Rivers United at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–57–9
  21. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Rivers United win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
  22. 67′We said Rivers United at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–62–8
  23. 72′We said Rivers United at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–68–7
  24. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Rivers United win: 63% at kick-off, 23% now
  25. 77′We said Rivers United at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–76–6
  26. 81′We said Rivers United at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–82–4
  27. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Rivers United win: 63% at kick-off, 12% now
  28. 86′We said Rivers United at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–0 · 8–89–3
  29. 91′We said Rivers United at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–95–1
  30. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Rivers United win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
  31. FTFULL TIME Rivers United 0–0 Barau FC
  32. FTRivers United 0–0 Barau FC · Rivers United win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rivers United are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rivers United 63%, draw 25%, Barau FC 12%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Rivers United v Barau FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rivers United win63%
Draw25%
Barau FC win12%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueYakubu Gowon Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rivers United

Barau FC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · NPFL

Last match: 11 Oct · NPFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Rivers United8+1116
5Barau FC8+313

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rivers united winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
63% The market67%
Us63%
Market67%

We make Rivers United a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rivers United v Barau FC1.55 – 0.50
Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 13 SeptW2 D4 L0 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 16 v 132 v 5
The market · Rivers United win67% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 15:44
Our probability · Rivers United win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rivers United win63%67%−4
Draw25%24%+1
Barau FC win12%9%+3
Over 2.5 goals34%40%−6
Both teams to score31%32%−1
Over 1.5 goals61%64%−3
Over 3.5 goals15%23%−8
Rivers United or draw88%91%−3
Rivers United clean sheet61%––
Barau FC clean sheet21%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.8%
0123450 13.1 6.4 1 19.8 10.0 2.5 2 15.4 7.7 3 8.0 4.0 4 3.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Rivers United down, Barau FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsRIV 1–0 BAR · BAR 4–1 RIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 13 Sept

RIVERS UNITED

DWDDWD1–1 · 5–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

BARAU FC

WDWDLD3–1 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enugu Rangers8+517
2Rivers United8+1116
3Plateau United8+514
4Doma United9014
5Barau FC8+313
6Ikorodu City8+312
7Bendel Insurance8+112
8Sporting Lagos8+112
9Katsina United8−112
10Kano Pillars8011
11Kwara United9011
12Nasarawa United8011
13Shooting Stars9−211
14Warri Wolves8−110
15Abia Warriors9−310
16Niger Tornadoes8−19
17Kun Khalifat FC9−79
18Ranchers Bees9−38
19Enyimba8−37
20Inter Lagos8−82

The competition's standings before kick-off.