Ranchers Bees v Doma United prediction · NPFL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ranchers BeesDrawDoma United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ranchers Bees 62%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ranchers Bees are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ranchers Bees 62%, draw 25%, Doma United 14%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Ranchers Bees v Doma UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ranchers Bees win62%

Draw25%

Doma United win14%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ranchers Bees

Doma United

8Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · NPFL

Last match: 17 Oct · NPFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Doma United	9	0	14
19	Ranchers Bees	9	−3	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ranchers bees winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Ranchers Bees a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ranchers Bees v Doma United~~1.61 – 0.60

~~Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 8 v 14~~19 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ranchers Bees win	62%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Doma United win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Ranchers Bees or draw	86%	–	–
Ranchers Bees clean sheet	55%	–	–
Doma United clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.5%

0123450 11.3 6.5 1 17.5 10.6 3.2 2 14.1 8.4 2.5 3 7.6 4.5 4 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ranchers Bees down, Doma United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,803 NPFL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Ranchers Bees at home: 1.50 scored, 0.25 conceded a game (last 4). Doma United away: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.61 goals for Ranchers Bees, 0.60 for Doma United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 19 Sept

RANCHERS BEES

WLDLDL2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–3

DOMA UNITED

LDLWLD1–4 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rivers United	9	+11	17
2	Enugu Rangers	8	+5	17
3	Sporting Lagos	9	+2	15
4	Plateau United	9	+4	14
5	Barau FC	9	+3	14
6	Nasarawa United	9	+2	14
7	Kano Pillars	9	+1	14
8	Doma United	9	0	14
9	Ikorodu City	9	+2	12
10	Bendel Insurance	8	+1	12
11	Niger Tornadoes	9	0	12
12	Katsina United	9	−2	12
13	Kwara United	9	0	11
14	Warri Wolves	9	−1	11
15	Shooting Stars	9	−2	11
16	Abia Warriors	9	−3	10
17	Kun Khalifat FC	9	−7	9
18	Enyimba	9	−3	8
19	Ranchers Bees	9	−3	8
20	Inter Lagos	9	−13	2