Plateau United v Kano Pillars prediction · NPFL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Plateau United 4–0 Kano Pillars PLATEAU UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Plateau United win~~64%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.203

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.260

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Plateau United win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Plateau United 64% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–23–13
7′3′ and it is 1–0: Plateau United have scored. 1–0 · 87–10–3
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 63% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 63% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 63% now
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 63% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 63% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 63% now
21′3′ and it is 1–0: P. Samson on the scoresheet for Plateau United. 1–0 · 87–11–3
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 63% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
23′3′ and it is 1–0: P. Samson on the scoresheet for Plateau United. 1–0 · 87–11–3
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Kano Pillars
26′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Plateau United
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Plateau United 2–0 Kano Pillars
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Kano Pillars
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Plateau United win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Plateau United 2–0 Kano Pillars
45′HALF-TIME Plateau United 2–0 Kano Pillars
46′SECOND HALF Plateau United 2–0 Kano Pillars
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Kano Pillars
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Plateau United
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Plateau United 3–0 Kano Pillars
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Plateau United 4–0 Kano Pillars
FTFULL TIME Plateau United 4–0 Kano Pillars
FTPlateau United 4–0 Kano Pillars · Plateau United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Plateau United win64%

Draw23%

Kano Pillars win13%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueRwang Pam Stadium

Line-ups

Plateau United

Kano Pillars

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Plateau United

Kano Pillars

7Days since last match4

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027/28

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Kano Pillars	7	+4	11
9	Plateau United	7	+1	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Plateau United

Formation not confirmed

30 O. Okiemute

25 I. Yahaya

3 M. Abdullahi

24 M. Andrew

26 A. Aghahowa

16 J. Okechukwu

10 D. Ojo

7 P. Samson

27 G. Monday

32 V. Dawa

29 J. Ibrahim

Coach · Sola Adegun

Substitutes

22 · J. Amah

31 · S. Mancha

35 · J. Ambrose

– · R. Aniako

2 · U. Ahmed

19 · M. Pam

33 · S. Ayanrinde

8 · S. Nenrot

40 · D. Isaiah

Kano Pillars

Formation not confirmed

35 J. Efevwerha

3 D. Ishaya

13 F. Maduabuchi

5 A. Musa

12 S. Ismaila

30 F. Usman

6 Z. Musa

4 M. Jawad

10 R. Ali

14 F. Ubong

25 N. Salihu

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · O. Frank

27 · S. Agu

2 · A. Abdullahi

9 · N. Yahya

37 · D. Adediran

28 · J. Ohanu

19 · Y. Ibrahim

26 · A. Shola

22 · S. Shaaibu

Our number · plateau united winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

64% The market59%

Us64%

~~Market~~59%

We make Plateau United a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · plateau united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Plateau United win	64%	59%	+5
Draw	23%	27%	−3
Kano Pillars win	13%	14%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	41%	40%	+1
Both teams to score	38%	40%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	67%	66%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	21%	−1
Plateau United or draw	87%	86%	+1
Plateau United clean sheet	54%	–	–
Kano Pillars clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.7%

0123450 9.9 6.1 1 16.7 10.3 3.2 2 14.2 8.8 2.7 3 8.1 5.0 4 3.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Plateau United down, Kano Pillars across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,787 NPFL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.12 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Plateau United at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kano Pillars away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Plateau United, 0.62 for Kano Pillars. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.12

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PLA 1–0 KAN · KAN 2–1 PLA · PLA 2–1 KAN · KAN 2–1 PLA

Form · last six in NPFL

PLATEAU UNITED

WDWDWL1–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–2

KANO PILLARS

WWDDDD3–2 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enugu Rangers	7	+5	16
2	Rivers United	7	+11	15
3	Doma United	7	+2	13
4	Barau FC	7	+3	12
5	Ikorodu City	8	+3	12
6	Bendel Insurance	7	+2	12
7	Katsina United	8	−1	12
8	Kano Pillars	7	+4	11
9	Plateau United	7	+1	11
10	Kwara United	8	0	10
11	Sporting Lagos	7	0	9
12	Niger Tornadoes	8	−1	9
13	Ranchers Bees	8	−1	8
14	Shooting Stars	7	−2	8
15	Nasarawa United	7	−2	8
16	Abia Warriors	7	−3	8
17	Enyimba	8	−3	7
18	Warri Wolves	7	−3	7
19	Inter Lagos	7	−6	5
20	Kun Khalifat FC	7	−9	5