

Niger Tornadoes v Ikorodu City
Niger Tornadoes
Ikorodu CityNPFL · SUN 18 OCT · Bako Kontagora Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Niger Tornadoes win at 55%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Niger Tornadoes was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–28–18
- 1′KICK-OFF Niger Tornadoes v Ikorodu City
- 27′We published Niger Tornadoes at 55%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–4
- 27′Niger Tornadoes score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–4
- 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Niger Tornadoes 1–0 Ikorodu City
- 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Niger Tornadoes win: 55% at kick-off, 83% now
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
- 45′HALF-TIME Niger Tornadoes 1–0 Ikorodu City
- 46′SECOND HALF Niger Tornadoes 1–0 Ikorodu City
- 49′We published Niger Tornadoes at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Niger Tornadoes win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
- 72′We published Niger Tornadoes at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 82′Niger Tornadoes find the net on 82′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Niger Tornadoes 2–0 Ikorodu City
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Niger Tornadoes win: 55% at kick-off, over 99% now
- 83′We published Niger Tornadoes at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 94′A goal for Ikorodu City on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
- 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Niger Tornadoes 2–1 Ikorodu City
- 95′We published Niger Tornadoes at 55%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
- 96′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
- FTFULL TIME Niger Tornadoes 2–1 Ikorodu City
- FTNiger Tornadoes 2–1 Ikorodu City · Niger Tornadoes win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Niger Tornadoes are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Niger Tornadoes 55%, draw 27%, Ikorodu City 18%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 38%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Niger Tornadoes win55%
Ikorodu City win18%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00
RoundMatchday 9
VenueBako Kontagora Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Niger TornadoesMIN
Ikorodu CityEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Niger Tornadoes
Ikorodu City
Last match: 10 Oct · NPFL
Last match: 10 Oct · NPFL
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Niger Tornadoes a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niger Tornadoes win | 55% | 58% | −3 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | −1 |
| Ikorodu City win | 18% | 14% | +4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 38% | 37% | +1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 19% | −3 |
| Niger Tornadoes or draw | 82% | 86% | −4 |
| Niger Tornadoes clean sheet | 50% | – | – |
| Ikorodu City clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2024/25Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 14 Sept
NIGER TORNADOES
IKORODU CITY
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Enugu Rangers | 8 | +5 | 17 |
| 2 | Rivers United | 8 | +11 | 16 |
| 3 | Plateau United | 8 | +5 | 14 |
| 4 | Doma United | 9 | 0 | 14 |
| 5 | Barau FC | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 6 | Ikorodu City | 8 | +3 | 12 |
| 7 | Bendel Insurance | 8 | +1 | 12 |
| 8 | Sporting Lagos | 8 | +1 | 12 |
| 9 | Katsina United | 8 | −1 | 12 |
| 10 | Kano Pillars | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Kwara United | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Nasarawa United | 8 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Shooting Stars | 9 | −2 | 11 |
| 14 | Warri Wolves | 8 | −1 | 10 |
| 15 | Abia Warriors | 9 | −3 | 10 |
| 16 | Niger Tornadoes | 8 | −1 | 9 |
| 17 | Kun Khalifat FC | 9 | −7 | 9 |
| 18 | Ranchers Bees | 9 | −3 | 8 |
| 19 | Enyimba | 8 | −3 | 7 |
| 20 | Inter Lagos | 8 | −8 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Enugu Rangers
Rivers United
Plateau United
Doma United
Barau FC
Bendel Insurance
Sporting Lagos
Katsina United
Kano Pillars
Kwara United
Nasarawa United
Shooting Stars
Warri Wolves
Abia Warriors
Kun Khalifat FC
Ranchers Bees
Enyimba
Inter Lagos