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Niger Tornadoes v Ikorodu City

Niger Tornadoes
2–1Full time
Ikorodu City

NPFL · SUN 18 OCT · Bako Kontagora Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Niger Tornadoes 2–1 Ikorodu City NIGER TORNADOES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Niger Tornadoes win55%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.315
The market’s Brier score0.270

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Niger Tornadoes win at 55%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Niger Tornadoes was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–28–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Niger Tornadoes v Ikorodu City
  4. 27′We published Niger Tornadoes at 55%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–4
  5. 27′Niger Tornadoes score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–4
  6. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Niger Tornadoes 1–0 Ikorodu City
  7. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Niger Tornadoes win: 55% at kick-off, 83% now
  8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–3
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Niger Tornadoes 1–0 Ikorodu City
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Niger Tornadoes 1–0 Ikorodu City
  11. 49′We published Niger Tornadoes at 55%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  12. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Niger Tornadoes win: 55% at kick-off, 85% now
  13. 72′We published Niger Tornadoes at 55%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  14. 82′Niger Tornadoes find the net on 82′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  15. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Niger Tornadoes 2–0 Ikorodu City
  16. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Niger Tornadoes win: 55% at kick-off, over 99% now
  17. 83′We published Niger Tornadoes at 55%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 94′A goal for Ikorodu City on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  19. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Niger Tornadoes 2–1 Ikorodu City
  20. 95′We published Niger Tornadoes at 55%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  21. 96′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
  22. FTFULL TIME Niger Tornadoes 2–1 Ikorodu City
  23. FTNiger Tornadoes 2–1 Ikorodu City · Niger Tornadoes win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Niger Tornadoes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Niger Tornadoes 55%, draw 27%, Ikorodu City 18%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Niger Tornadoes v Ikorodu CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Niger Tornadoes win55%
Draw27%
Ikorodu City win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueBako Kontagora Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Niger Tornadoes

Ikorodu City

8Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · NPFL

Last match: 10 Oct · NPFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Ikorodu City8+312
16Niger Tornadoes8−19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · niger tornadoes winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
55% The market58%
Us55%
Market58%

We make Niger Tornadoes a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Niger Tornadoes v Ikorodu City1.42 – 0.69
Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 14 SeptW1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 9 v 1216 v 6
The market · Niger Tornadoes win58% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 15:44
Our probability · Niger Tornadoes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Niger Tornadoes win55%58%−3
Draw27%28%−1
Ikorodu City win18%14%+4
Over 2.5 goals35%37%−2
Both teams to score38%37%+1
Over 1.5 goals62%62%0
Over 3.5 goals16%19%−3
Niger Tornadoes or draw82%86%−4
Niger Tornadoes clean sheet50%––
Ikorodu City clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.1%
0123450 12.3 8.2 2.9 1 17.1 11.9 4.1 2 12.2 8.4 2.9 3 5.8 4.0 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Niger Tornadoes down, Ikorodu City across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting2.75
Over 2.52 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsIKO 2–0 NIG · NIG 4–2 IKO · IKO 3–0 NIG · NIG 0–0 IKO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 14 Sept

NIGER TORNADOES

DLDLWD1–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

IKORODU CITY

DLWDLW0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enugu Rangers8+517
2Rivers United8+1116
3Plateau United8+514
4Doma United9014
5Barau FC8+313
6Ikorodu City8+312
7Bendel Insurance8+112
8Sporting Lagos8+112
9Katsina United8−112
10Kano Pillars8011
11Kwara United9011
12Nasarawa United8011
13Shooting Stars9−211
14Warri Wolves8−110
15Abia Warriors9−310
16Niger Tornadoes8−19
17Kun Khalifat FC9−79
18Ranchers Bees9−38
19Enyimba8−37
20Inter Lagos8−82

The competition's standings before kick-off.