Niger Tornadoes v Barau FC prediction · NPFL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Niger TornadoesDrawBarau FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Niger Tornadoes 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Niger Tornadoes are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Niger Tornadoes 52%, draw 30%, Barau FC 18%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Niger Tornadoes v Barau FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Niger Tornadoes win52%

Draw30%

Barau FC win18%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueBako Kontagora Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Niger Tornadoes

Barau FC

12Days since last match12

Last match: 18 Oct · NPFL

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Barau FC	9	+3	14
11	Niger Tornadoes	9	0	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · niger tornadoes winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Niger Tornadoes a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Niger Tornadoes v Barau FC~~1.25 – 0.59

~~Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 12 v 14~~11 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Niger Tornadoes win	52%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Barau FC win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Niger Tornadoes or draw	82%	–	–
Niger Tornadoes clean sheet	55%	–	–
Barau FC clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.6%

0123450 16.2 9.3 2.8 1 19.6 11.8 3.4 2 12.3 7.2 2.1 3 5.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Niger Tornadoes down, Barau FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,804 NPFL matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Niger Tornadoes at home: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Barau FC away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Niger Tornadoes, 0.59 for Barau FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAR 2–1 NIG · NIG 2–0 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 19 Sept

NIGER TORNADOES

LDLWDW0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–1

BARAU FC

DWDLDD0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rivers United	9	+11	17
2	Enugu Rangers	8	+5	17
3	Sporting Lagos	9	+2	15
4	Plateau United	9	+4	14
5	Barau FC	9	+3	14
6	Nasarawa United	9	+2	14
7	Kano Pillars	9	+1	14
8	Doma United	9	0	14
9	Ikorodu City	9	+2	12
10	Bendel Insurance	8	+1	12
11	Niger Tornadoes	9	0	12
12	Katsina United	9	−2	12
13	Kwara United	9	0	11
14	Warri Wolves	9	−1	11
15	Shooting Stars	9	−2	11
16	Abia Warriors	9	−3	10
17	Kun Khalifat FC	9	−7	9
18	Enyimba	9	−3	8
19	Ranchers Bees	9	−3	8
20	Inter Lagos	9	−13	2