Nasarawa United v Doma United prediction · NPFL

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Nasarawa United 2–0 Doma United NASARAWA UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nasarawa United win~~61%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.241

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.268

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nasarawa United win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nasarawa United was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–26–14
1′KICK-OFF Nasarawa United v Doma United
2′Much as we predicted: Nasarawa United was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–26–14
10′🟨 YELLOW · 9' Doma United
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Nasarawa United 1–0 Doma United
22′A goal for Nasarawa United on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–11–3
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Nasarawa United win: 61% at kick-off, 86% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Nasarawa United win: 61% at kick-off, 60% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Nasarawa United win: 61% at kick-off, 60% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Nasarawa United win: 61% at kick-off, 86% now
24′A goal for Nasarawa United on 10′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–11–2
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Nasarawa United win: 61% at kick-off, 86% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Nasarawa United win: 61% at kick-off, 86% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Nasarawa United win: 61% at kick-off, 86% now
45′HALF-TIME Nasarawa United 1–0 Doma United
46′SECOND HALF Nasarawa United 1–0 Doma United
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Nasarawa United
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Nasarawa United 2–0 Doma United
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Nasarawa United
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Doma United
90′🟨 YELLOW · 95' Doma United
FTFULL TIME Nasarawa United 2–0 Doma United
FTNasarawa United 2–0 Doma United · Nasarawa United win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Nasarawa United win61%

Draw26%

Doma United win14%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueLafia Township Stadium

Line-ups

Nasarawa United

Doma United

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Nasarawa United

Doma United

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2027/28

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Doma United	7	+2	13
15	Nasarawa United	7	−2	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Nasarawa United

Formation not confirmed

31 C. Olughu

6 A. Abdullahi

29 S. Dapma

4 C. Nduka

27 A. Odinaka

5 H. Ebah

35 J. Istifanus

25 K. Ogbodo

10 P. Samuel

17 L. Ugochukwu

37 B. Oche

Coach · –

Substitutes

34 · A. Godwin

24 · J. Victor Ekioke

15 · M. Hassan

11 · S. Aluku

28 · A. Dabani

39 · M. Yakubu

36 · W. Ciroma

20 · A. Onyemaechi

8 · U. Ada

Doma United

Formation not confirmed

36 E. Adayilo

15 A. Abubakar

3 S. Gamagira

20 S. Collins

4 B. Philimon

34 D. Idaiye

22 A. Mojeed

16 D. Simon

29 A. Tijani

11 S. Ulunwa

18 R. Sadiq

Coach · Akinade Onigbinde

Substitutes

45 · S. Lamido

40 · H. Abutu

28 · C. Elemon

14 · U. Adamu

30 · N. Agu

9 · J. Abah

23 · Z. Mohammed

35 · J. Tseka

8 · J. Omah

Our number · nasarawa united winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

61% The market58%

Us61%

~~Market~~58%

We make Nasarawa United a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nasarawa united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nasarawa United win	61%	58%	+2
Draw	26%	26%	0
Doma United win	14%	16%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	35%	43%	−9
Both teams to score	34%	43%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	62%	67%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	16%	24%	−8
Nasarawa United or draw	86%	84%	+2
Nasarawa United clean sheet	57%	–	–
Doma United clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.9%

0123450 12.5 7.1 2.0 1 18.9 10.7 3.0 2 14.3 8.1 2.3 3 7.2 4.1 4 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nasarawa United down, Doma United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,787 NPFL matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.1% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Nasarawa United at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Doma United away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.52 goals for Nasarawa United, 0.57 for Doma United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in NPFL

NASARAWA UNITED

WLDLWD1–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0

DOMA UNITED

WWLDLW1–0 · 2–0 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enugu Rangers	7	+5	16
2	Rivers United	7	+11	15
3	Doma United	7	+2	13
4	Barau FC	7	+3	12
5	Ikorodu City	8	+3	12
6	Bendel Insurance	7	+2	12
7	Katsina United	8	−1	12
8	Kano Pillars	7	+4	11
9	Plateau United	7	+1	11
10	Kwara United	8	0	10
11	Sporting Lagos	7	0	9
12	Niger Tornadoes	8	−1	9
13	Ranchers Bees	8	−1	8
14	Shooting Stars	7	−2	8
15	Nasarawa United	7	−2	8
16	Abia Warriors	7	−3	8
17	Enyimba	8	−3	7
18	Warri Wolves	7	−3	7
19	Inter Lagos	7	−6	5
20	Kun Khalifat FC	7	−9	5