Katsina United v Plateau United prediction · NPFL

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Katsina United 2–2 Plateau United KATSINA UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Katsina United win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.849

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Katsina United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Katsina United 54%, draw 28%, Plateau United 18%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Katsina United v Plateau UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Katsina United win54%

Draw28%

Plateau United win18%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMuhammadu Dikko Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Katsina United

Plateau United

6Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · NPFL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Plateau United	9	+4	14
12	Katsina United	9	−2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · katsina united winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Katsina United a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Katsina United v Plateau United~~1.41 – 0.68

~~Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 20 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 14~~12 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Katsina United win	54%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Plateau United win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	35%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	16%	–	–
Katsina United or draw	82%	–	–
Katsina United clean sheet	51%	–	–
Plateau United clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.2%

0123450 12.6 8.3 2.9 1 17.2 12.0 4.1 2 12.2 8.3 2.9 3 5.7 3.9 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Katsina United down, Plateau United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,803 NPFL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Katsina United at home: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Plateau United away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Katsina United, 0.68 for Plateau United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~2 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAT 0–0 PLA · PLA 1–2 KAT · KAT 1–0 PLA · PLA 1–0 KAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 20 Sept

KATSINA UNITED

LWDDWL0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–2 · 0–1

PLATEAU UNITED

WDWLWL3–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rivers United	9	+11	17
2	Enugu Rangers	8	+5	17
3	Sporting Lagos	9	+2	15
4	Plateau United	9	+4	14
5	Barau FC	9	+3	14
6	Nasarawa United	9	+2	14
7	Kano Pillars	9	+1	14
8	Doma United	9	0	14
9	Ikorodu City	9	+2	12
10	Bendel Insurance	8	+1	12
11	Niger Tornadoes	9	0	12
12	Katsina United	9	−2	12
13	Kwara United	9	0	11
14	Warri Wolves	9	−1	11
15	Shooting Stars	9	−2	11
16	Abia Warriors	9	−3	10
17	Kun Khalifat FC	9	−7	9
18	Enyimba	9	−3	8
19	Ranchers Bees	9	−3	8
20	Inter Lagos	9	−13	2