Home › Football › NPFL › Katsina United v Enyimba

Katsina United v Enyimba

Katsina United

4–2Full time

Enyimba

NPFL · FRI 9 OCT · Muhammadu Dikko Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Katsina United 4–2 Enyimba KATSINA UNITED WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Katsina United win~~54%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.321

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.319

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Katsina United win at 54%.
66′⚽ GOAL · 59' Katsina United 3–1 Enyimba
66′SECOND HALF Katsina United 3–1 Enyimba
66′⚽ GOAL · 67' Katsina United 3–1 Enyimba
77′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Enyimba · On: C. Egbe · Off: W. Williams
77′⚽ GOAL · 67' Katsina United 3–2 Enyimba · C. Michael
77′⚽ GOAL · 74' Katsina United 3–2 Enyimba
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Katsina United 4–2 Enyimba · C. Michael
79′⚽ GOAL · 80' Katsina United 4–2 Enyimba
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Enyimba
91′⚽ GOAL · 6' Katsina United 4–2 Enyimba · E. Onyema
91′⚽ GOAL · 12' Katsina United 4–2 Enyimba · S. Mubarak
91′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Katsina United
91′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Katsina United
91′⚽ GOAL · 60' Katsina United 4–2 Enyimba · L. Dadong
91′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Enyimba · On: S. Bello · Off: I. Ihemekwele
91′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Enyimba · On: C. Egbe · Off: W. Williams
91′⚽ GOAL · 67' Katsina United 4–2 Enyimba · C. Michael
91′⚽ GOAL · 75' Katsina United 4–2 Enyimba · C. Egbe
91′⚽ GOAL · 80' Katsina United 4–2 Enyimba
91′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Enyimba
FTFULL TIME Katsina United 4–2 Enyimba
FTKatsina United 4–2 Enyimba · Katsina United win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Katsina United win54%

Draw28%

Enyimba win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Muhammadu Dikko Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Katsina United

Formation not confirmed

13 F. Koroma

12 I. Arigu

15 A. Musa

2 K. Jinadu

3 E. Bakare

28 U. Essien

6 I. Muktar

8 S. Mubarak

27 A. Garba

19 A. Nura

7 L. Dadong

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · S. Hamisu

18 · B. Yakubu

20 · A. Abdulkadir

4 · U. Barau

14 · E. Akanni

– · S. Ibrahim

5 · Y. Mannase

– · U. Rabiu

21 · O. Samson

11 · A. Dali

Enyimba

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Dede

5 E. Onyema

22 E. Iwuorie

26 W. Obichere

12 S. Hamisu

6 C. Ezinwa

18 A. Idris

8 T. I. Iyanda

7 W. Williams

21 C. Michael

33 I. Ihemekwele

Coach · Stanley Eguma

Substitutes

23 · G. Utum

27 · A. Oloyade

32 · S. Dimgba

19 · P. Anyanwu

30 · S. Bello

38 · C. Egbe

29 · D. Obodoagu

14 · I. Suraj

34 · C. Ezeifule

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Katsina United

Formation not confirmed

13 F. Koroma

12 I. Arigu

15 A. Musa

2 K. Jinadu

3 E. Bakare

28 U. Essien

6 I. Muktar

8 S. Mubarak

27 A. Garba

19 A. Nura

7 L. Dadong

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · S. Hamisu

18 · B. Yakubu

20 · A. Abdulkadir

4 · U. Barau

14 · E. Akanni

– · S. Ibrahim

5 · Y. Mannase

– · U. Rabiu

21 · O. Samson

11 · A. Dali

Enyimba

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Dede

5 E. Onyema

22 E. Iwuorie

26 W. Obichere

12 S. Hamisu

6 C. Ezinwa

18 A. Idris

8 T. I. Iyanda

7 W. Williams

21 C. Michael

33 I. Ihemekwele

Coach · Stanley Eguma

Substitutes

23 · G. Utum

27 · A. Oloyade

32 · S. Dimgba

19 · P. Anyanwu

30 · S. Bello

38 · C. Egbe

29 · D. Obodoagu

14 · I. Suraj

34 · C. Ezeifule

Our number · katsina united winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

54% The market54%

Us54%

~~Market~~54%

We make Katsina United a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · katsina united win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 54% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Katsina United win	54%	54%	0
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Enyimba win	18%	17%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	33%	35%	−3
Both teams to score	35%	38%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	60%	59%	0
Over 3.5 goals	15%	18%	−4
Katsina United or draw	82%	83%	−1
Katsina United clean sheet	52%	–	–
Enyimba clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.2%

0123450 13.4 8.7 2.8 1 18.2 11.8 3.8 2 12.4 8.0 2.6 3 5.6 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Katsina United down, Enyimba across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,784 NPFL matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.4% of games this season, across 70 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 6 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Katsina United at home: 2.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Enyimba away: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Katsina United, 0.65 for Enyimba. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~ENY 3–0 KAT · KAT 3–2 ENY · KAT 2–1 ENY · ENY 3–0 KAT

Form · last six in NPFL

KATSINA UNITED

LWLWDD0–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

ENYIMBA

LLLDWW0–2 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 2–0

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enugu Rangers	7	+5	16
2	Rivers United	7	+11	15
3	Doma United	7	+2	13
4	Barau FC	7	+3	12
5	Bendel Insurance	7	+2	12
6	Kano Pillars	7	+4	11
7	Plateau United	7	+1	11
8	Kwara United	7	+2	10
9	Ikorodu City	7	+1	9
10	Sporting Lagos	7	0	9
11	Katsina United	7	−3	9
12	Niger Tornadoes	7	−1	8
13	Shooting Stars	7	−2	8
14	Nasarawa United	7	−2	8
15	Abia Warriors	7	−3	8
16	Enyimba	7	−1	7
17	Ranchers Bees	7	−1	7
18	Warri Wolves	7	−3	7
19	Inter Lagos	7	−6	5
20	Kun Khalifat FC	7	−9	5