Kano Pillars v Katsina United prediction · NPFL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Kano Pillars 1–0 Katsina United KANO PILLARS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Kano Pillars win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.240

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kano Pillars are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kano Pillars 60%, draw 25%, Katsina United 14%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Kano Pillars v Katsina UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Kano Pillars win60%

Draw25%

Katsina United win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueSani Abacha Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kano Pillars

Katsina United

7Days since last match9

Last match: 11 Oct · NPFL

Last match: 9 Oct · NPFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Katsina United	8	−1	12
10	Kano Pillars	8	0	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kano pillars winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Kano Pillars a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kano Pillars v Katsina United~~1.57 – 0.61

~~Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kano Pillars win	60%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Katsina United win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	36%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Kano Pillars or draw	86%	–	–
Kano Pillars clean sheet	54%	–	–
Katsina United clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.7%

0123450 11.5 6.8 2.1 1 17.7 10.9 3.3 2 13.9 8.4 2.6 3 7.3 4.4 4 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kano Pillars down, Katsina United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,797 NPFL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kano Pillars at home: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Katsina United away: 0.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for Kano Pillars, 0.61 for Katsina United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~1 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KAN 1–0 KAT · KAT 1–0 KAN · KAT 1–0 KAN · KAN 1–0 KAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 19 Sept

KANO PILLARS

WDDDDL4–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–4

KATSINA UNITED

WLWDDW1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enugu Rangers	8	+5	17
2	Rivers United	8	+11	16
3	Plateau United	8	+5	14
4	Doma United	9	0	14
5	Barau FC	8	+3	13
6	Ikorodu City	8	+3	12
7	Bendel Insurance	8	+1	12
8	Sporting Lagos	8	+1	12
9	Katsina United	8	−1	12
10	Kano Pillars	8	0	11
11	Kwara United	9	0	11
12	Nasarawa United	8	0	11
13	Shooting Stars	9	−2	11
14	Warri Wolves	8	−1	10
15	Abia Warriors	9	−3	10
16	Niger Tornadoes	8	−1	9
17	Kun Khalifat FC	9	−7	9
18	Ranchers Bees	9	−3	8
19	Enyimba	8	−3	7
20	Inter Lagos	8	−8	2