Inter Lagos v Nasarawa United prediction · NPFL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Inter Lagos 0–2 Nasarawa United INTER LAGOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter Lagos win~~53%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.034

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.889

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Lagos win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Inter Lagos 53% before kick-off, 53% now. 0–0 · 53–29–18
1′KICK-OFF Inter Lagos v Nasarawa United
11′Nasarawa United score on 11′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 23–28–49
11′We said Inter Lagos at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–1 · 23–28–49
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Inter Lagos 0–1 Nasarawa United
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Inter Lagos win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Nasarawa United win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Inter Lagos win 23%)
23′We said Inter Lagos at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–53
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 17–28–55
37′We said Inter Lagos at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–28–57
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Inter Lagos win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
41′Nasarawa United find the net on 40′. 0–2. 0–2 · 3–10–87
41′We said Inter Lagos at 53%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–10–87
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Inter Lagos 0–2 Nasarawa United
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Inter Lagos win: 53% at kick-off, 3% now
45′HALF-TIME Inter Lagos 0–2 Nasarawa United
46′SECOND HALF Inter Lagos 0–2 Nasarawa United
FTFULL TIME Inter Lagos 0–2 Nasarawa United
FTInter Lagos 0–2 Nasarawa United · Inter Lagos win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Lagos are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inter Lagos 53%, draw 28%, Nasarawa United 18%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Inter Lagos v Nasarawa UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Inter Lagos win53%

Draw28%

Nasarawa United win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inter Lagos

Nasarawa United

7Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · NPFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Nasarawa United	8	0	11
20	Inter Lagos	8	−8	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · inter lagos winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off

53% The market47%

Us53%

~~Market~~47%

We make Inter Lagos a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inter Lagos v Nasarawa United~~1.37 – 0.67

~~Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 11~~20 v 12

~~The market · Inter Lagos win~~47% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inter Lagos win The market, margin stripped

Published at 54%, 53% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter Lagos win	53%	47%	+6
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Nasarawa United win	18%	24%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Both teams to score	36%	45%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	60%	65%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	15%	20%	−5
Inter Lagos or draw	82%	76%	+6
Inter Lagos clean sheet	51%	–	–
Nasarawa United clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.7%

0123450 13.4 8.7 3.0 1 17.7 12.0 4.0 2 12.1 8.0 2.7 3 5.6 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter Lagos down, Nasarawa United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,797 NPFL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Inter Lagos at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 4). Nasarawa United away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Inter Lagos, 0.67 for Nasarawa United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 13 Sept

INTER LAGOS

LWDLDL0–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–3

NASARAWA UNITED

LDLWDW1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enugu Rangers	8	+5	17
2	Rivers United	8	+11	16
3	Plateau United	8	+5	14
4	Doma United	9	0	14
5	Barau FC	8	+3	13
6	Ikorodu City	8	+3	12
7	Bendel Insurance	8	+1	12
8	Sporting Lagos	8	+1	12
9	Katsina United	8	−1	12
10	Kano Pillars	8	0	11
11	Kwara United	9	0	11
12	Nasarawa United	8	0	11
13	Shooting Stars	9	−2	11
14	Warri Wolves	8	−1	10
15	Abia Warriors	9	−3	10
16	Niger Tornadoes	8	−1	9
17	Kun Khalifat FC	9	−7	9
18	Ranchers Bees	9	−3	8
19	Enyimba	8	−3	7
20	Inter Lagos	8	−8	2