Ikorodu City v Shooting Stars prediction · NPFL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Ikorodu CityDrawShooting Stars

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Ikorodu City 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ikorodu City are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ikorodu City 64%, draw 23%, Shooting Stars 13%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Ikorodu City v Shooting StarsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Ikorodu City win64%

Draw23%

Shooting Stars win13%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueMobolaji Johnson Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ikorodu City

Shooting Stars

7Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · NPFL

Last match: 16 Oct · NPFL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Ikorodu City	9	+2	12
15	Shooting Stars	9	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ikorodu city winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Ikorodu City a 64% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ikorodu City v Shooting Stars~~1.78 – 0.65

~~Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 23 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 12 v 11~~9 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ikorodu City win	64%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Shooting Stars win	13%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	40%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Ikorodu City or draw	87%	–	–
Ikorodu City clean sheet	52%	–	–
Shooting Stars clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 9.1 5.6 1 15.6 10.3 3.3 2 13.9 9.0 2.9 3 8.3 5.3 4 3.7 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ikorodu City down, Shooting Stars across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,803 NPFL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ikorodu City at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Shooting Stars away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Ikorodu City, 0.65 for Shooting Stars. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~IKO 1–0 SHO · SHO 1–1 IKO · SHO 0–0 IKO · IKO 2–1 SHO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 23 Sept

IKORODU CITY

LWDLWL1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 1–2

SHOOTING STARS

LLDDLW0–1 · 2–4 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rivers United	9	+11	17
2	Enugu Rangers	8	+5	17
3	Sporting Lagos	9	+2	15
4	Plateau United	9	+4	14
5	Barau FC	9	+3	14
6	Nasarawa United	9	+2	14
7	Kano Pillars	9	+1	14
8	Doma United	9	0	14
9	Ikorodu City	9	+2	12
10	Bendel Insurance	8	+1	12
11	Niger Tornadoes	9	0	12
12	Katsina United	9	−2	12
13	Kwara United	9	0	11
14	Warri Wolves	9	−1	11
15	Shooting Stars	9	−2	11
16	Abia Warriors	9	−3	10
17	Kun Khalifat FC	9	−7	9
18	Enyimba	9	−3	8
19	Ranchers Bees	9	−3	8
20	Inter Lagos	9	−13	2