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Ikorodu City v Kwara United

Ikorodu City

2–0Full time

Kwara United

NPFL · SAT 10 OCT · Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:32

Ikorodu City 2–0 Kwara United IKORODU CITY WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ikorodu City win~~64%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.201

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.204

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ikorodu City win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ikorodu City 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 64–24–13
1′KICK-OFF Ikorodu City v Kwara United
5′⚽ GOAL · 3' Ikorodu City 1–0 Kwara United
22′2′ and it is 1–0: E. Ujunwa on the scoresheet for Ikorodu City. 1–0 · 87–11–3
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Ikorodu City win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 37' Ikorodu City 2–0 Kwara United
42′⚽ GOAL · 36' Ikorodu City 2–0 Kwara United · E. Ikechukwu
43′Ikorodu City ahead on 36′ through E. Ikechukwu. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Ikorodu City win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Ikorodu City win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
44′⚽ GOAL · 36' Ikorodu City 2–0 Kwara United · E. Ikechukwu
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Ikorodu City win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Ikorodu City win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ikorodu City win: 64% at kick-off, 87% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Ikorodu City win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
45′HALF-TIME Ikorodu City 2–0 Kwara United
46′SECOND HALF Ikorodu City 2–0 Kwara United
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Ikorodu City win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Ikorodu City win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Kwara United
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Kwara United
FTFULL TIME Ikorodu City 2–0 Kwara United
FTIkorodu City 2–0 Kwara United · Ikorodu City win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ikorodu City win64%

Draw23%

Kwara United win13%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:00

Venue · Mobolaji Johnson Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ikorodu City

Formation not confirmed

20 M. Atata

27 E. Ujunwa

13 F. Ganiyu

9 A. Adeoye

22 M. Freedom

21 K. Peter

11 E. Ikechukwu

4 A. Adeshola

29 F. Salami

2 O. Akinwande

7 A. Tomiwa

Coach · –

Substitutes

24 · F. Umar

8 · M. Bada

18 · D. Mse

6 · J. Torbira

10 · A. Ayodeji

40 · A. Basit

17 · A. Abdulraman

15 · D. Obiajulu

26 · U. Azimi

Kwara United

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Ayeleso

2 A. Ferinyaro

5 D. Uche

14 N. Anthony

26 O. Saheed

12 J. Ogbonnaya

8 T. Gidado

17 A. Abdulsalam

7 G. Chukwu

4 P. Ozor

24 E. Ekpenyong

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · S. Victor

32 · M. Owolijah

25 · P. Dewan

10 · M. Alao

20 · G. Abutu

18 · A. Gata

9 · J. Alex

40 · O. Chukwukanmadu

11 · M. Sanni

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ikorodu City

Formation not confirmed

20 M. Atata

27 E. Ujunwa

13 F. Ganiyu

9 A. Adeoye

22 M. Freedom

21 K. Peter

11 E. Ikechukwu

4 A. Adeshola

29 F. Salami

2 O. Akinwande

7 A. Tomiwa

Coach · –

Substitutes

24 · F. Umar

8 · M. Bada

18 · D. Mse

6 · J. Torbira

10 · A. Ayodeji

40 · A. Basit

17 · A. Abdulraman

15 · D. Obiajulu

26 · U. Azimi

Kwara United

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Ayeleso

2 A. Ferinyaro

5 D. Uche

14 N. Anthony

26 O. Saheed

12 J. Ogbonnaya

8 T. Gidado

17 A. Abdulsalam

7 G. Chukwu

4 P. Ozor

24 E. Ekpenyong

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · S. Victor

32 · M. Owolijah

25 · P. Dewan

10 · M. Alao

20 · G. Abutu

18 · A. Gata

9 · J. Alex

40 · O. Chukwukanmadu

11 · M. Sanni

Our number · ikorodu city winPublished 10 Oct 16:17

64% The market64%

Us64%

~~Market~~64%

We make Ikorodu City a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.7–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ikorodu city win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ikorodu City win	64%	64%	0
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Kwara United win	13%	12%	0
Over 2.5 goals	40%	41%	−1
Both teams to score	37%	38%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	67%	66%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	22%	−2
Ikorodu City or draw	87%	88%	0
Ikorodu City clean sheet	55%	–	–
Kwara United clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.1%

0123450 10.2 6.1 1 17.1 10.2 3.1 2 14.4 8.6 2.6 3 8.1 4.9 4 3.5 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ikorodu City down, Kwara United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,785 NPFL matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.3% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ikorodu City at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Kwara United away: 0.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Ikorodu City, 0.60 for Kwara United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~IKO 1–0 KWA · KWA 0–0 IKO · IKO 2–1 KWA · KWA 0–0 IKO

Form · last six in NPFL

IKORODU CITY

DDLWDL2–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

KWARA UNITED

LWLWLW0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–1

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enugu Rangers	7	+5	16
2	Rivers United	7	+11	15
3	Doma United	7	+2	13
4	Barau FC	7	+3	12
5	Bendel Insurance	7	+2	12
6	Katsina United	8	−1	12
7	Kano Pillars	7	+4	11
8	Plateau United	7	+1	11
9	Kwara United	7	+2	10
10	Ikorodu City	7	+1	9
11	Sporting Lagos	7	0	9
12	Niger Tornadoes	7	−1	8
13	Shooting Stars	7	−2	8
14	Nasarawa United	7	−2	8
15	Abia Warriors	7	−3	8
16	Ranchers Bees	7	−1	7
17	Enyimba	8	−3	7
18	Warri Wolves	7	−3	7
19	Inter Lagos	7	−6	5
20	Kun Khalifat FC	7	−9	5