Enyimba v Warri Wolves prediction · NPFL

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32

Enyimba 0–0 Warri Wolves ENYIMBA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Enyimba win~~63%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.989

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.049

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Enyimba win at 63%.
1′Much as we predicted: Enyimba was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 63% now. 0–0 · 63–25–12
1′KICK-OFF Enyimba v Warri Wolves
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Enyimba win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
35′We said Enyimba at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 51–36–13
39′We said Enyimba at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–38–12
45′HALF-TIME Enyimba 0–0 Warri Wolves
46′SECOND HALF Enyimba 0–0 Warri Wolves
49′We said Enyimba at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–44–12
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Enyimba win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Enyimba win 41%)
56′We said Enyimba at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–50–11
63′We said Enyimba at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–56–10
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Enyimba win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
68′We said Enyimba at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–62–9
73′We said Enyimba at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–68–8
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Enyimba win: 63% at kick-off, 23% now
79′We said Enyimba at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–78–6
81′We said Enyimba at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–81–5
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Enyimba win: 63% at kick-off, 13% now
85′We said Enyimba at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–3
91′We said Enyimba at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–94–1
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Enyimba win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
FTFULL TIME Enyimba 0–0 Warri Wolves
FTEnyimba 0–0 Warri Wolves · Enyimba win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Enyimba are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Enyimba 63%, draw 24%, Warri Wolves 12%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Enyimba v Warri WolvesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Enyimba win63%

Draw24%

Warri Wolves win12%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueEnyimba International Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Enyimba

Warri Wolves

9Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · NPFL

Last match: 11 Oct · NPFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Warri Wolves	8	−1	10
19	Enyimba	8	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · enyimba winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market68%

Us63%

~~Market~~68%

We make Enyimba a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Enyimba v Warri Wolves~~1.63 – 0.57

~~Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 20 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 10~~19 v 14

~~The market · Enyimba win~~68% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Enyimba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Enyimba win	63%	68%	−5
Draw	24%	24%	0
Warri Wolves win	12%	8%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
Both teams to score	35%	31%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	64%	64%	0
Over 3.5 goals	18%	22%	−4
Enyimba or draw	88%	92%	−4
Enyimba clean sheet	57%	–	–
Warri Wolves clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.0%

0123450 11.3 6.2 1 18.0 10.3 2.9 2 14.7 8.3 2.4 3 8.0 4.5 4 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Enyimba down, Warri Wolves across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,797 NPFL matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.2% of games this season, across 83 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Enyimba at home: 2.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Warri Wolves away: 0.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Enyimba, 0.57 for Warri Wolves. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~WAR 2–1 ENY · ENY 1–2 WAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 20 Sept

ENYIMBA

LLDWWL0–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 2–0 · 2–4

WARRI WOLVES

WDWLLW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Enugu Rangers	8	+5	17
2	Rivers United	8	+11	16
3	Plateau United	8	+5	14
4	Doma United	9	0	14
5	Barau FC	8	+3	13
6	Ikorodu City	8	+3	12
7	Bendel Insurance	8	+1	12
8	Sporting Lagos	8	+1	12
9	Katsina United	8	−1	12
10	Kano Pillars	8	0	11
11	Kwara United	9	0	11
12	Nasarawa United	8	0	11
13	Shooting Stars	9	−2	11
14	Warri Wolves	8	−1	10
15	Abia Warriors	9	−3	10
16	Niger Tornadoes	8	−1	9
17	Kun Khalifat FC	9	−7	9
18	Ranchers Bees	9	−3	8
19	Enyimba	8	−3	7
20	Inter Lagos	8	−8	2