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Doma United v Kun Khalifat FC

Doma United
1–1Full time
Kun Khalifat FC

NPFL · SAT 17 OCT · Pantami Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42
Doma United 1–1 Kun Khalifat FC DOMA UNITED WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Doma United win58%
The market said66%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.905
The market’s Brier score1.073

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Doma United win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Doma United 58% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–26–16
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Doma United v Kun Khalifat FC
  4. 29′Kun Khalifat FC find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 20–29–51
  5. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Doma United 0–1 Kun Khalifat FC
  6. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Doma United win: 58% at kick-off, 20% now
  7. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Kun Khalifat FC win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Doma United win 20%)
  8. 30′We said Doma United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–29–51
  9. 31′GOAL DISALLOWED · 31' Kun Khalifat FC
  10. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Doma United win: 58% at kick-off, 49% now
  11. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Doma United win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Kun Khalifat FC win 16%)
  12. 37′We said Doma United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 46%. 0–0 · 46–39–15
  13. 41′We said Doma United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–41–15
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Doma United 0–0 Kun Khalifat FC
  15. 46′SECOND HALF Doma United 0–0 Kun Khalifat FC
  16. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Doma United win 40%)
  17. 51′We said Doma United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–47–14
  18. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Doma United win: 58% at kick-off, 38% now
  19. 55′Kun Khalifat FC find the net on 55′. 0–1. 0–1 · 10–27–63
  20. 55′We said Doma United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–27–63
  21. 55′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 10–27–63
  22. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Doma United 0–1 Kun Khalifat FC
  23. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Doma United win: 58% at kick-off, 10% now
  24. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Kun Khalifat FC win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Draw 27%)
  25. 57′We said Doma United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–27–65
  26. 59′A goal for Doma United on 58′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–53–13
  27. 59′We said Doma United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–53–13
  28. 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Doma United 1–1 Kun Khalifat FC
  29. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Doma United win: 58% at kick-off, 34% now
  30. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Kun Khalifat FC win 13%)
  31. 66′We said Doma United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–60–11
  32. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Doma United win: 58% at kick-off, 28% now
  33. 76′We said Doma United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–73–8
  34. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Doma United win: 58% at kick-off, 18% now
  35. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Doma United win: 58% at kick-off, 8% now
  36. 91′We said Doma United at 58%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  37. FTFULL TIME Doma United 1–1 Kun Khalifat FC
  38. FTDoma United 1–1 Kun Khalifat FC · Doma United win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Doma United are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Doma United 58%, draw 26%, Kun Khalifat FC 16%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Doma United v Kun Khalifat FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Doma United win58%
Draw26%
Kun Khalifat FC win16%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenuePantami Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Doma United

Kun Khalifat FC

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · NPFL

Last match: 11 Oct · NPFL

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Doma United8013
18Kun Khalifat FC8−78

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · doma united winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off
58% The market66%
Us58%
Market66%

We make Doma United a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Doma United v Kun Khalifat FC1.51 – 0.65
Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 12 SeptW2 D1 L3 · W2 D0 L4
Table places · points 13 v 85 v 18
The market · Doma United win66% · ours 58%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 15:08
Our probability · Doma United win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Doma United win58%66%−8
Draw26%21%+5
Kun Khalifat FC win16%12%+4
Over 2.5 goals37%54%−17
Both teams to score37%47%−10
Over 1.5 goals63%76%−13
Over 3.5 goals17%33%−16
Doma United or draw84%88%−4
Doma United clean sheet52%––
Kun Khalifat FC clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.4%
0123450 11.8 7.5 2.5 1 17.4 11.3 3.7 2 13.0 8.4 2.8 3 6.6 4.3 4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Doma United down, Kun Khalifat FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 12 Sept

DOMA UNITED

WLDLWL2–0 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 0–2

KUN KHALIFAT FC

LLLWLW2–4 · 2–4 · 0–5 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Enugu Rangers8+517
2Rivers United8+1116
3Plateau United8+514
4Barau FC8+313
5Doma United8013
6Ikorodu City8+312
7Bendel Insurance8+112
8Sporting Lagos8+112
9Katsina United8−112
10Kano Pillars8011
11Nasarawa United8011
12Shooting Stars9−211
13Kwara United8010
14Warri Wolves8−110
15Niger Tornadoes8−19
16Abia Warriors8−39
17Ranchers Bees9−38
18Kun Khalifat FC8−78
19Enyimba8−37
20Inter Lagos8−82

The competition's standings before kick-off.