Bendel Insurance v Rivers United prediction · NPFL

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Bendel InsuranceDrawRivers United

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bendel Insurance 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bendel Insurance are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bendel Insurance 52%, draw 29%, Rivers United 18%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Bendel Insurance v Rivers UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Bendel Insurance win52%

Draw29%

Rivers United win18%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueSamuel Ogbemudia Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bendel Insurance

Rivers United

14Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · NPFL

Last match: 18 Oct · NPFL

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bendel insurance winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Bendel Insurance a 52% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bendel Insurance v Rivers United~~1.30 – 0.65

~~Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 17~~10 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bendel Insurance win	52%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Rivers United win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Bendel Insurance or draw	82%	–	–
Bendel Insurance clean sheet	52%	–	–
Rivers United clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.4%

0123450 14.6 9.1 3.0 1 18.4 12.1 3.9 2 12.0 7.7 2.5 3 5.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bendel Insurance down, Rivers United across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,803 NPFL matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: NPFL matches have gone over 2.5 in 41.6% of games this season, across 89 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2023 in every competition we cover, 2.29 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bendel Insurance at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Rivers United away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Bendel Insurance, 0.65 for Rivers United. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~RIV 3–1 BEN · BEN 0–0 RIV · RIV 2–2 BEN · BEN 0–0 RIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in NPFL this season · since 13 Sept

BENDEL INSURANCE

WLWLWL4–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 1–2

RIVERS UNITED

WDDWDD5–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Rivers United	9	+11	17
2	Enugu Rangers	8	+5	17
3	Sporting Lagos	9	+2	15
4	Plateau United	9	+4	14
5	Barau FC	9	+3	14
6	Nasarawa United	9	+2	14
7	Kano Pillars	9	+1	14
8	Doma United	9	0	14
9	Ikorodu City	9	+2	12
10	Bendel Insurance	8	+1	12
11	Niger Tornadoes	9	0	12
12	Katsina United	9	−2	12
13	Kwara United	9	0	11
14	Warri Wolves	9	−1	11
15	Shooting Stars	9	−2	11
16	Abia Warriors	9	−3	10
17	Kun Khalifat FC	9	−7	9
18	Enyimba	9	−3	8
19	Ranchers Bees	9	−3	8
20	Inter Lagos	9	−13	2