Walter Ferretti v Real Estelí prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 02:30

Walter Ferretti 3–1 Real Estelí REAL ESTELÍ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Estelí win~~49%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.877

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.987

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Estelí win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Estelí was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
1′KICK-OFF Walter Ferretti v Real Estelí
41′Walter Ferretti score on 41′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 60–26–14
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Walter Ferretti 1–0 Real Estelí
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Real Estelí win: 49% at kick-off, 14% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Walter Ferretti win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Real Estelí win 14%)
42′We said Real Estelí at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 61–26–13
42′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 61–26–13
45′HALF-TIME Walter Ferretti 1–0 Real Estelí
46′SECOND HALF Walter Ferretti 1–0 Real Estelí
47′Real Estelí find the net on 46′. 1–1. 1–1 · 22–41–37
47′⚽ GOAL · 46' Walter Ferretti 1–1 Real Estelí
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Real Estelí win: 49% at kick-off, 37% now
48′We said Real Estelí at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 21–42–37
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Walter Ferretti win 21%)
54′We said Real Estelí at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 20–46–34
58′A goal for Walter Ferretti on 58′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 68–24–8
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Walter Ferretti 2–1 Real Estelí
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Real Estelí win: 49% at kick-off, 8% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Walter Ferretti win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 24%)
59′We said Real Estelí at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 2–1 · 68–24–8
60′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 69–24–7
69′We said Real Estelí at 49%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–21–4
81′Walter Ferretti score on 81′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Walter Ferretti 3–1 Real Estelí
82′4 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Walter Ferretti 3–1 Real Estelí
FTWalter Ferretti 3–1 Real Estelí · Real Estelí win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Estelí are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Walter Ferretti 25%, draw 26%, Real Estelí 49%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Walter Ferretti v Real EstelíBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Walter Ferretti win25%

Draw26%

Real Estelí win49%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 00:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Walter Ferretti

Real Estelí

3Days since last match2

Last match: 15 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Real Estelí	12	+13	22
6	Walter Ferretti	12	+2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real estelí winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · updated 18 Oct 04:10 · locked at kick-off

49% The market55%

Us49%

~~Market~~55%

We make Real Estelí a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Walter Ferretti v Real Estelí~~1.02 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 14 v 22~~6 v 4

~~The market · Real Estelí win~~55% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Estelí win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Walter Ferretti win	25%	21%	+4
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Real Estelí win	49%	55%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	47%	58%	−11
Both teams to score	50%	57%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	73%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	26%	37%	−11
Walter Ferretti or draw	51%	45%	+6
Walter Ferretti clean sheet	22%	–	–
Real Estelí clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.1 11.6 9.2 4.7 1 7.6 12.3 9.2 4.8 2 4.0 6.1 4.7 2.4 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Walter Ferretti down, Real Estelí across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,046 Primera Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Walter Ferretti at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Real Estelí away: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Walter Ferretti, 1.55 for Real Estelí. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REA 4–1 WAL · REA 2–4 WAL · WAL 0–4 REA · REA 1–1 WAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 30 Aug

WALTER FERRETTI

LDLDWW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 5–1

REAL ESTELÍ

WDDLWD2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	13	+28	35
2	Diriangén	12	+12	27
3	UNAN Managua	13	+4	24
4	Real Estelí	12	+13	22
5	H&H Export	11	−4	17
6	Walter Ferretti	12	+2	14
7	San Marcos	13	−8	11
8	Matagalpa	12	−22	9
9	Jalapa	12	−11	6
10	Rancho Santana	12	−14	6