Walter Ferretti v Rancho Santana prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:32

Walter Ferretti 4–1 Rancho Santana WALTER FERRETTI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Walter Ferretti win~~67%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.162

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.182

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Walter Ferretti win at 67%.
20′Little has changed for our model: Walter Ferretti 67% before kick-off, 62% now. 0–0 · 62–24–14
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Walter Ferretti win: 67% at kick-off, 57% now
38′We said Walter Ferretti at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 55%. 0–0 · 55–30–15
41′We said Walter Ferretti at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–31–14
45′A goal for Walter Ferretti on 45′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
45′We said Walter Ferretti at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45+6' Walter Ferretti 2–0 Rancho Santana
45′HALF-TIME Walter Ferretti 2–0 Rancho Santana
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Walter Ferretti win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
46′Rancho Santana find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–2–0
46′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–2–0
46′A goal for Walter Ferretti on 90′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
46′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 4–1 · 100–0–0
46′SECOND HALF Walter Ferretti 2–0 Rancho Santana
46′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Walter Ferretti 3–1 Rancho Santana
46′⚽ GOAL · 90+9' Walter Ferretti 4–1 Rancho Santana
48′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 2–0 · 97–2–0
50′We said Walter Ferretti at 67%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–37–14 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
76′Walter Ferretti score on 75′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′We said Walter Ferretti at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Walter Ferretti 3–0 Rancho Santana
FTFULL TIME Walter Ferretti 4–1 Rancho Santana
FTWalter Ferretti 4–1 Rancho Santana · Walter Ferretti win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Walter Ferretti are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Walter Ferretti 67%, draw 19%, Rancho Santana 13%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Walter Ferretti v Rancho SantanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Walter Ferretti win67%

Draw19%

Rancho Santana win13%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Walter Ferretti

Rancho Santana

7Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Walter Ferretti	13	+4	17
10	Rancho Santana	13	−15	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · walter ferretti winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 24 Oct 04:08 · locked at kick-off

67% The market65%

Us67%

~~Market~~65%

We make Walter Ferretti a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Walter Ferretti v Rancho Santana~~2.18 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 2 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 6~~5 v 10

~~The market · Walter Ferretti win~~65% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Walter Ferretti win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Walter Ferretti win	67%	65%	+2
Draw	19%	21%	−2
Rancho Santana win	13%	14%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	65%	−7
Both teams to score	50%	59%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	80%	82%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	36%	46%	−10
Walter Ferretti or draw	87%	86%	+1
Walter Ferretti clean sheet	43%	–	–
Rancho Santana clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.4%

0123450 5.2 4.0 1 10.4 9.1 3.8 2 11.4 9.5 4.1 3 8.3 6.9 2.9 4 4.6 3.8 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Walter Ferretti down, Rancho Santana across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,050 Primera Division matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.4% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Walter Ferretti at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Rancho Santana away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.18 goals for Walter Ferretti, 0.85 for Rancho Santana. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~RAN 1–3 WAL · WAL 0–0 RAN · RAN 2–2 WAL · RAN 1–1 WAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 2 Sept

WALTER FERRETTI

DLDWWW1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 4–2 · 5–1 · 3–1

RANCHO SANTANA

DDLDLL1–1 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	13	+28	35
2	Diriangén	13	+13	30
3	UNAN Managua	13	+4	24
4	Real Estelí	13	+11	22
5	Walter Ferretti	13	+4	17
6	H&H Export	12	−7	17
7	San Marcos	13	−8	11
8	Jalapa	13	−8	9
9	Matagalpa	12	−22	9
10	Rancho Santana	13	−15	6