UNAN Managua v San Marcos

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said UNAN Managua win at 45%.
2. 2′Little has changed for our model: UNAN Managua 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–26–29
3. 2′KICK-OFF UNAN Managua v San Marcos
4. 24′San Marcos score on 24′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–58
5. 24′We said UNAN Managua at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
6. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' UNAN Managua 0–1 San Marcos
7. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' UNAN Managua win: 45% at kick-off, 18% now
8. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' San Marcos win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was UNAN Managua win 18%)
9. 32′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 16–24–60
10. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' UNAN Managua win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
11. 37′We said UNAN Managua at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–61
12. 38′UNAN Managua find the net on 38′. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–35–26
13. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' UNAN Managua 1–1 San Marcos
14. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' UNAN Managua win: 45% at kick-off, 38% now
15. 42′A goal for UNAN Managua on 40′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 74–19–7
16. 42′⚽ GOAL · 40' UNAN Managua 2–1 San Marcos
17. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' UNAN Managua win: 45% at kick-off, 74% now
18. 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' UNAN Managua win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was San Marcos win 7%)
19. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' UNAN Managua win: 45% at kick-off, 75% now
20. 44′We said UNAN Managua at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–7
21. 45′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 75–19–6
22. 45′San Marcos are down to ten from 21′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 75–19–6
23. 45′HALF-TIME UNAN Managua 2–1 San Marcos
24. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 21' San Marcos
25. 45′🟥 RED CARD · 21' San Marcos
26. 46′SECOND HALF UNAN Managua 2–1 San Marcos
27. 49′UNAN Managua score on 48′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 94–5–1
28. 49′⚽ GOAL · 48' UNAN Managua 3–1 San Marcos
29. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' UNAN Managua win: 45% at kick-off, 94% now
30. 50′We said UNAN Managua at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 3–1 · 94–5–1
31. 50′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 94–5–1
32. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' UNAN Managua win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
33. 52′We said UNAN Managua at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
34. 59′San Marcos find the net on 58′. 3–2. 3–2 · 78–18–4
35. 59′5 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 78–18–4
36. 59′⚽ GOAL · 58' UNAN Managua 3–2 San Marcos
37. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' UNAN Managua win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
38. 63′We said UNAN Managua at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 3–2 · 80–17–3
39. 73′We said UNAN Managua at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 3–2 · 85–14–2
40. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' UNAN Managua win: 45% at kick-off, 85% now
41. 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' UNAN Managua win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
42. FTFULL TIME UNAN Managua 3–2 San Marcos
43. FTUNAN Managua 3–2 San Marcos · UNAN Managua win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.