UNAN Managua v Diriangén prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 02:30

UNAN Managua 1–3 Diriangén DIRIANGÉN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Diriangén win~~62%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.220

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.278

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Diriangén win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Diriangén was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 17–21–62
1′KICK-OFF UNAN Managua v Diriangén
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' UNAN Managua 0–1 Diriangén
26′A goal for Diriangén on 25′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 5–13–82
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Diriangén win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
28′We published Diriangén at 62%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 5–13–82
30′30′ and it is 1–1: UNAN Managua have scored. 1–1 · 18–28–54
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' UNAN Managua 1–1 Diriangén
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Diriangén win: 62% at kick-off, 54% now
33′GOAL DISALLOWED · 33' UNAN Managua
34′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 4–13–82
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Diriangén win: 62% at kick-off, 82% now
43′⚽ GOAL · 42' UNAN Managua 0–2 Diriangén
45′42′ and it is 0–2: Diriangén have scored. 0–2 · 1–3–96
45′We published Diriangén at 62%. Our model now makes it 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Diriangén win: 62% at kick-off, 96% now
45′PENALTY MISSED · 51' UNAN Managua
45′HALF-TIME UNAN Managua 0–2 Diriangén
46′SECOND HALF UNAN Managua 0–2 Diriangén
76′UNAN Managua find the net on 75′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–10–89
76′⚽ GOAL · 75' UNAN Managua 1–2 Diriangén
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Diriangén win: 62% at kick-off, 89% now
78′We published Diriangén at 62%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Diriangén win: 62% at kick-off, 92% now
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' UNAN Managua 1–3 Diriangén
89′A goal for Diriangén on 88′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′We published Diriangén at 62%. Our model now makes it 100%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
90′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME UNAN Managua 1–3 Diriangén
FTUNAN Managua 1–3 Diriangén · Diriangén win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Diriangén are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: UNAN Managua 17%, draw 21%, Diriangén 62%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on UNAN Managua v DiriangénBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off

UNAN Managua win17%

Draw21%

Diriangén win62%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UNAN Managua

Diriangén

2Days since last match3

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Diriangén	11	10	24
4	UNAN Managua	11	5	21

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · diriangén winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 14 Oct 23:38 · locked at kick-off

62% The market57%

Us62%

~~Market~~57%

We make Diriangén a 62% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UNAN Managua v Diriangén~~0.98 – 2.06

~~Last six in Primera Division~~W3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 24~~4 v 2

~~The market · Diriangén win~~57% · ours 62%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · diriangén win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UNAN Managua win	17%	19%	−2
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Diriangén win	62%	57%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Both teams to score	55%	54%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	81%	77%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	36%	33%	+3
UNAN Managua or draw	38%	43%	−5
UNAN Managua clean sheet	13%	–	–
Diriangén clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.1%

0123450 5.1 9.6 10.1 6.9 3.6 1 4.5 9.8 9.8 6.7 3.5 2 2.3 4.7 4.8 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UNAN Managua down, Diriangén across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,040 Primera Division matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

21 previous meetings, 3.38 goals a meeting; 17 of 21 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UNAN Managua at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Diriangén away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for UNAN Managua, 2.06 for Diriangén. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

21 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.38

~~Over 2.5~~17 of 21

~~Both scored~~12 of 21

~~Last meetings~~DIR 1–1 UNA · UNA 1–2 DIR · DIR 3–1 UNA · DIR 2–1 UNA

Form · last six in Primera Division

UNAN MANAGUA

WLLWWD1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

DIRIANGÉN

WDWWWL2–0 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	11	24	29
2	Diriangén	11	10	24
3	Real Estelí	11	13	21
4	UNAN Managua	11	5	21
5	H&H Export	10	-6	14
6	Walter Ferretti	11	-2	11
7	San Marcos	11	-6	11
8	Matagalpa	10	-15	9
9	Rancho Santana	11	-12	6
10	Jalapa	11	-11	5