San Marcos v Matagalpa prediction · Primera Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San MarcosDrawMatagalpa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:00

Before kick-off · Match result · San Marcos 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Marcos are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Marcos 40%, draw 25%, Matagalpa 35%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on San Marcos v MatagalpaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

San Marcos win40%

Draw25%

Matagalpa win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Marcos

Matagalpa

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	San Marcos	13	−8	11
9	Matagalpa	12	−22	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san marcos winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make San Marcos a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Marcos v Matagalpa~~1.50 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 11 v 9~~7 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Marcos win	40%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Matagalpa win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
San Marcos or draw	65%	–	–
San Marcos clean sheet	26%	–	–
Matagalpa clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.1 7.6 5.4 2.5 1 8.2 11.7 7.8 3.6 2 6.3 8.5 5.8 2.7 3 3.2 4.3 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Marcos down, Matagalpa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,050 Primera Division matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.4% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Marcos at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Matagalpa away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for San Marcos, 1.38 for Matagalpa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MAT 1–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 30 Aug

SAN MARCOS

LWLLLL0–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 2–3

MATAGALPA

LWLLLL0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 1–5 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	13	+28	35
2	Diriangén	13	+13	30
3	UNAN Managua	13	+4	24
4	Real Estelí	13	+11	22
5	Walter Ferretti	13	+4	17
6	H&H Export	12	−7	17
7	San Marcos	13	−8	11
8	Jalapa	13	−8	9
9	Matagalpa	12	−22	9
10	Rancho Santana	13	−15	6