Real Estelí v Jalapa prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 04:30

Real Estelí 1–1 Jalapa REAL ESTELÍ WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Estelí win~~66%

~~The market said~~77%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.088

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.307

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Estelí win at 66%.
1′KICK-OFF Real Estelí v Jalapa
2′Much as we predicted: Real Estelí was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–21–13
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Real Estelí win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
39′We said Real Estelí at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–33–14
45′HALF-TIME Real Estelí 0–0 Jalapa
46′SECOND HALF Real Estelí 0–0 Jalapa
48′We said Real Estelí at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–38–13
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Real Estelí win: 66% at kick-off, 46% now
54′Real Estelí score on 54′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–11–2
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Real Estelí 1–0 Jalapa
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Real Estelí win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
55′We published Real Estelí at 66%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–11–2
68′Jalapa find the net on 68′. 1–1. 1–1 · 34–56–10
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Real Estelí 1–1 Jalapa
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Real Estelí win: 66% at kick-off, 34% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Real Estelí win 34%)
69′We said Real Estelí at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–1 · 33–57–10
70′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 31–59–10
72′We said Real Estelí at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–61–9
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Real Estelí win: 66% at kick-off, 25% now
77′We said Real Estelí at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–70–8
81′We said Real Estelí at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–1 · 17–77–6
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Real Estelí win: 66% at kick-off, 15% now
83′We said Real Estelí at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–82–5
87′We said Real Estelí at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–3
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Real Estelí win: 66% at kick-off, 6% now
92′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Real Estelí
93′Jalapa find the net on 67′. 1–1. 1–1 · 3–96–1
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Real Estelí
94′We said Real Estelí at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–1 · 2–97–1
FTFULL TIME Real Estelí 1–1 Jalapa
FTReal Estelí 1–1 Jalapa · Real Estelí win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Estelí are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Estelí 66%, draw 21%, Jalapa 13%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Real Estelí v JalapaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Real Estelí win66%

Draw21%

Jalapa win13%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Estelí

Jalapa

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Real Estelí	11	+13	21
10	Jalapa	11	−11	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real estelí winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

66% The market77%

Us66%

~~Market~~77%

We make Real Estelí a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 77%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Estelí v Jalapa~~1.99 – 0.73

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 23 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 21 v 5~~3 v 10

~~The market · Real Estelí win~~77% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Estelí win The market, margin stripped

Published at 67%, 66% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 77% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Estelí win	66%	77%	−11
Draw	21%	15%	+6
Jalapa win	13%	8%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	51%	64%	−13
Both teams to score	45%	47%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	75%	80%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	29%	44%	−15
Real Estelí or draw	87%	92%	−5
Real Estelí clean sheet	48%	–	–
Jalapa clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.9%

0123450 6.9 4.7 1 12.9 9.7 3.5 2 12.9 9.3 3.4 3 8.6 6.2 2.3 4 4.4 3.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Estelí down, Jalapa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,043 Primera Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.4% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Estelí at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Jalapa away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Real Estelí, 0.73 for Jalapa. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JAL 0–1 REA · REA 3–1 JAL · JAL 0–0 REA · REA 2–1 JAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 23 Aug

REAL ESTELÍ

WWDDLW5–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–1

JALAPA

LLDLDL0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	12	+25	32
2	Diriangén	12	+12	27
3	Real Estelí	11	+13	21
4	UNAN Managua	12	+3	21
5	Walter Ferretti	12	+2	14
6	H&H Export	10	−6	14
7	San Marcos	12	−7	11
8	Matagalpa	11	−19	9
9	Rancho Santana	11	−12	6
10	Jalapa	11	−11	5