Rancho Santana v UNAN Managua prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 04:34

Rancho Santana 1–1 UNAN Managua UNAN MANAGUA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said UNAN Managua win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.849

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.806

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said UNAN Managua win at 43%.
0′KICK-OFF Rancho Santana v UNAN Managua
1′Much as we predicted: UNAN Managua was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 32–25–43
3′Much as we predicted: UNAN Managua was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 32–25–43
45′SECOND HALF Rancho Santana 0–0 UNAN Managua
46′HALF-TIME Rancho Santana 0–0 UNAN Managua
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Rancho Santana 0–1 UNAN Managua
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Rancho Santana 0–1 UNAN Managua
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Rancho Santana 1–1 UNAN Managua
95′⚽ GOAL · 96' Rancho Santana 1–1 UNAN Managua
101′🟥 RED CARD · 101' Rancho Santana
101′🟥 RED CARD · 102' Rancho Santana
FTFULL TIME Rancho Santana 1–1 UNAN Managua
FTRancho Santana 1–1 UNAN Managua · UNAN Managua win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Rancho Santana win32%

Draw25%

UNAN Managua win43%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 02:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Rancho Santana

UNAN Managua

9Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	UNAN Managua	10	+5	20
10	Rancho Santana	10	−12	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · unan managua winPublished 12 Oct 02:00

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make UNAN Managua a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · unan managua win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rancho Santana win	32%	31%	+1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
UNAN Managua win	43%	42%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	78%	76%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Rancho Santana or draw	57%	58%	−1
Rancho Santana clean sheet	21%	–	–
UNAN Managua clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.0 8.6 6.9 3.6 1 7.1 11.7 8.9 4.7 2 4.8 7.5 5.8 3.1 3 2.1 3.3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rancho Santana down, UNAN Managua across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,037 Primera Division matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.1% of games this season, across 51 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rancho Santana at home: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). UNAN Managua away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Rancho Santana, 1.58 for UNAN Managua. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~UNA 2–0 RAN · UNA 0–2 RAN · RAN 1–3 UNA · RAN 2–1 UNA

Form · last six in Primera Division

RANCHO SANTANA

LLWDDL1–3 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–6

UNAN MANAGUA

WWLLWW2–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	10	+23	26
2	Diriangén	11	+10	24
3	Real Estelí	11	+13	21
4	UNAN Managua	10	+5	20
5	Walter Ferretti	11	−2	11
6	San Marcos	10	−4	11
7	H&H Export	9	−8	11
8	Matagalpa	10	−15	9
9	Jalapa	10	−10	5
10	Rancho Santana	10	−12	5