Rancho Santana v Diriangén prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 04:30

Rancho Santana 0–1 Diriangén DIRIANGÉN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Diriangén win~~75%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.094

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.117

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Diriangén win at 75%.
1′KICK-OFF Rancho Santana v Diriangén
2′Little has changed for our model: Diriangén 75% before kick-off, 75% now. 0–0 · 9–16–75
19′We said Diriangén at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 3–8–90
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Rancho Santana 0–1 Diriangén
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Diriangén win: 75% at kick-off, 90% now
20′Diriangén find the net on 19′. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–8–90
22′We said Diriangén at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–1 · 3–8–89
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 0–1 · 2–9–89
38′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Diriangén
45′HALF-TIME Rancho Santana 0–1 Diriangén
45′SECOND HALF Rancho Santana 0–1 Diriangén
82′We said Diriangén at 75% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Diriangén win: 75% at kick-off, 95% now
90′0–1 at the end. Our 75% on Diriangén comes in. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Rancho Santana 0–1 Diriangén
FTRancho Santana 0–1 Diriangén · Diriangén win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Diriangén are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rancho Santana 9%, draw 15%, Diriangén 75%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Rancho Santana v DiriangénBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Rancho Santana win9%

Draw15%

Diriangén win75%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rancho Santana

Diriangén

4Days since last match5

Last match: 15 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Diriangén	12	+12	27
10	Rancho Santana	12	−14	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · diriangén winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

75% The market72%

Us75%

~~Market~~72%

We make Diriangén a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rancho Santana v Diriangén~~0.79 – 2.57

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 27~~10 v 2

~~The market · Diriangén win~~72% · ours 75%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Diriangén win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rancho Santana win	9%	10%	−1
Draw	15%	18%	−3
Diriangén win	75%	72%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	65%	63%	+2
Both teams to score	50%	51%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	80%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	43%	43%	0
Rancho Santana or draw	25%	28%	−3
Rancho Santana clean sheet	8%	–	–
Diriangén clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 11.4%

0123450 3.8 8.8 11.4 9.7 6.3 3.31 2.6 7.2 8.9 7.6 4.9 2.52 2.8 3.6 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Rancho Santana down, Diriangén across0–5 goals a side shown (95.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,047 Primera Division matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.5% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.78 goals a meeting; 8 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rancho Santana at home: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Diriangén away: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.79 goals for Rancho Santana, 2.57 for Diriangén. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.78

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~DIR 2–1 RAN · DIR 5–1 RAN · RAN 0–4 DIR · RAN 1–8 DIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 30 Aug

RANCHO SANTANA

WDDLDL1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 1–1 · 0–2

DIRIANGÉN

DWWWLW3–3 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	13	+28	35
2	Diriangén	12	+12	27
3	UNAN Managua	13	+4	24
4	Real Estelí	12	+13	22
5	H&H Export	11	−4	17
6	Walter Ferretti	12	+2	14
7	San Marcos	13	−8	11
8	Matagalpa	12	−22	9
9	Jalapa	12	−11	6
10	Rancho Santana	12	−14	6