Managua v Matagalpa prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:31

Managua 4–1 Matagalpa MANAGUA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Managua win~~67%

~~The market said~~80%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.166

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.063

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Managua win at 67%.
1′Much as we predicted: Managua was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 67% now. 0–0 · 67–19–14
1′KICK-OFF Managua v Matagalpa
9′Managua find the net on 9′. 1–0. 1–0 · 85–10–5
9′We published Managua at 67%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–10–5
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Managua 1–0 Matagalpa
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Managua win: 67% at kick-off, 85% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 85–11–4
45′HALF-TIME Managua 1–0 Matagalpa
51′A goal for Managua on 51′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–2–0
51′We published Managua at 67%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
51′SECOND HALF Managua 1–0 Matagalpa
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Managua 2–0 Matagalpa
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Managua win: 67% at kick-off, 97% now
66′Managua score on 66′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Managua 3–0 Matagalpa
67′We published Managua at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
68′Matagalpa find the net on 67′. 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Managua 3–1 Matagalpa
71′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
78′A goal for Managua on 77′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Managua 4–1 Matagalpa
81′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Managua 4–1 Matagalpa
FTManagua 4–1 Matagalpa · Managua win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Managua are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Managua 67%, draw 19%, Matagalpa 14%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Managua v MatagalpaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Managua win67%

Draw19%

Matagalpa win14%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 02:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Managua

Matagalpa

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · managua winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

67% The market80%

Us67%

~~Market~~80%

We make Managua a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 80%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Managua v Matagalpa~~2.25 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 23 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 32 v 9~~1 v 8

~~The market · Managua win~~80% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Managua win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 80% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Managua win	67%	80%	−13
Draw	19%	14%	+5
Matagalpa win	14%	6%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	61%	66%	−5
Both teams to score	54%	45%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	83%	84%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	45%	−6
Managua or draw	86%	94%	−8
Managua clean sheet	40%	–	–
Matagalpa clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.5%

0123450 4.5 3.7 1 9.2 8.9 4.0 2 10.5 9.6 4.5 3 7.9 7.2 3.3 4 4.5 4.1 5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Managua down, Matagalpa across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,045 Primera Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.8% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Managua at home: 3.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Matagalpa away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.25 goals for Managua, 0.93 for Matagalpa. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAT 0–3 MAN · MAN 2–4 MAT · MAT 1–2 MAN · MAN 1–1 MAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 23 Aug

MANAGUA

DWDWWW3–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 6–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

MATAGALPA

WLWLLL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	12	+25	32
2	Diriangén	12	+12	27
3	Real Estelí	12	+13	22
4	UNAN Managua	12	+3	21
5	H&H Export	11	−4	17
6	Walter Ferretti	12	+2	14
7	San Marcos	12	−7	11
8	Matagalpa	11	−19	9
9	Jalapa	12	−11	6
10	Rancho Santana	12	−14	6