Jalapa v UNAN Managua prediction · Primera Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

JalapaDrawUNAN Managua

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Jalapa 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jalapa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jalapa 50%, draw 25%, UNAN Managua 25%. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Jalapa v UNAN ManaguaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Jalapa win50%

Draw25%

UNAN Managua win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 21:00

RoundApertura · matchday 14

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jalapa

UNAN Managua

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	UNAN Managua	13	+4	24
9	Jalapa	13	−8	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jalapa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 19 Oct 05:39 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Jalapa a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jalapa v UNAN Managua~~1.66 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 2 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 24~~9 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jalapa win

Published at 49%, 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jalapa win	50%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
UNAN Managua win	25%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	52%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	30%	–	–
Jalapa or draw	75%	–	–
Jalapa clean sheet	34%	–	–
UNAN Managua clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.8%

0123450 6.9 6.7 3.9 1 10.4 11.8 6.3 2.3 2 8.8 9.4 5.1 3 4.9 5.2 2.8 4 2.0 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jalapa down, UNAN Managua across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,051 Primera Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.7% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jalapa at home: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). UNAN Managua away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Jalapa, 1.09 for UNAN Managua. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~UNA 2–1 JAL · UNA 2–4 JAL · JAL 0–0 UNA · JAL 5–0 UNA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 2 Sept

JALAPA

DLDLDW1–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 4–1

UNAN MANAGUA

LWWDLW0–1 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	13	+28	35
2	Diriangén	13	+13	30
3	UNAN Managua	13	+4	24
4	Real Estelí	13	+11	22
5	Walter Ferretti	14	+7	20
6	H&H Export	12	−7	17
7	San Marcos	14	−8	12
8	Matagalpa	13	−22	10
9	Jalapa	13	−8	9
10	Rancho Santana	14	−18	6