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Model 1.1

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Jalapa v Managua

Jalapa
0–1Full time
Managua

Primera Division · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 00:30
Jalapa 0–1 Managua MANAGUA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Managua win48%
The market said61%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.407
The market’s Brier score0.234

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Jalapa win26%
Draw26%
Managua win48%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 22:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Jalapa

Managua

7Days since last match8
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Managua10+2326
9Jalapa10−105

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · managua winPublished 11 Oct 23:32
48% The market48%
Us48%
Market48%

We make Managua a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60%65% 9 OCT 06:1911 OCT 23:38
Our probability · managua win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Jalapa win26%25%+1
Draw26%27%−1
Managua win48%48%0
Over 2.5 goals49%51%−2
Both teams to score52%55%−3
Over 1.5 goals74%74%0
Over 3.5 goals28%32%−4
Jalapa or draw52%52%0
Jalapa clean sheet21%––
Managua clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%
0123450 7.5 10.7 8.6 4.5 1 7.4 12.2 9.2 4.8 2 4.2 6.5 5.0 2.6 3 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Jalapa down, Managua across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

22 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.86
Over 2.512 of 22
Both scored13 of 22
Last meetingsMAN 3–0 JAL · MAN 1–0 JAL · JAL 2–0 MAN · JAL 2–1 MAN

Form · last six in Primera Division

JALAPA

LLLDLD1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–2

MANAGUA

WWDWDW6–1 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 6–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Managua10+2326
2Diriangén10+1224
3UNAN Managua10+520
4Real Estelí10+1018
5San Marcos10−411
6H&H Export9−811
7Matagalpa9−129
8Walter Ferretti10−48
9Jalapa10−105
10Rancho Santana10−125

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.