H&H Export v Rancho Santana prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 14:01

H&H Export 2–0 Rancho Santana H&H EXPORT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said H&H Export win~~63%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.208

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.245

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

H&H Export are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: H&H Export 63%, draw 21%, Rancho Santana 17%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on H&H Export v Rancho SantanaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

H&H Export win63%

Draw21%

Rancho Santana win17%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 12

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

H&H Export

Rancho Santana

4Days since last match3

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	H&H Export	10	−6	14
9	Rancho Santana	11	−12	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · h&h export winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

63% The market60%

Us63%

~~Market~~60%

We make H&H Export a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · H&H Export v Rancho Santana~~2.11 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 6~~6 v 9

~~The market · H&H Export win~~60% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · H&H Export win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
H&H Export win	63%	60%	+3
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Rancho Santana win	17%	18%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	59%	0
Both teams to score	54%	56%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	80%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−2
H&H Export or draw	83%	82%	+1
H&H Export clean sheet	38%	–	–
Rancho Santana clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.1%

0123450 4.9 4.4 2.3 1 9.5 9.6 4.6 2 10.1 9.7 4.7 3 7.1 6.8 3.3 4 3.8 3.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+H&H Export down, Rancho Santana across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,041 Primera Division matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.5% of games this season, across 55 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.56 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

H&H Export at home: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Rancho Santana away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.11 goals for H&H Export, 0.97 for Rancho Santana. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.56

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~RAN 0–1 HAN · RAN 0–3 HAN · HAN 3–1 RAN · HAN 2–0 RAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 22 Aug

H&H EXPORT

LLDLLW1–6 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–0

RANCHO SANTANA

LWDDLD1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–6 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	12	+25	32
2	Diriangén	12	+12	27
3	Real Estelí	11	+13	21
4	UNAN Managua	12	+3	21
5	Walter Ferretti	12	+2	14
6	H&H Export	10	−6	14
7	San Marcos	12	−7	11
8	Matagalpa	11	−19	9
9	Rancho Santana	11	−12	6
10	Jalapa	11	−11	5