H&H Export v Matagalpa prediction · Primera Division

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

H&H Export are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: H&H Export 46%, draw 24%, Matagalpa 30%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on H&H Export v MatagalpaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · postponed, not graded

H&H Export win46%

Draw24%

Matagalpa win30%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 10

VenueEstadio Municipal El Colosal de Sebaco

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

H&H Export

Matagalpa

3Days since last match3

Last match: 18 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	H&H Export	12	−7	17
9	Matagalpa	12	−22	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · h&h export winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · updated 19 Oct 05:39 · postponed, not graded

46% The market54%

Us46%

~~Market~~54%

We make H&H Export a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · H&H Export v Matagalpa~~1.68 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 17 v 9~~6 v 9

~~The market · H&H Export win~~54% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · H&H Export win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
H&H Export win	46%	54%	−8
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Matagalpa win	30%	22%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Both teams to score	59%	55%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	76%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	0
H&H Export or draw	70%	78%	−8
H&H Export clean sheet	27%	–	–
Matagalpa clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.4 6.4 4.4 1 8.3 11.2 7.2 3.1 2 7.1 9.2 6.0 2.6 3 4.0 5.1 3.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+H&H Export down, Matagalpa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,050 Primera Division matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 48.4% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

H&H Export at home: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Matagalpa away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.68 goals for H&H Export, 1.31 for Matagalpa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MAT 0–3 HAN · MAT 2–1 HAN · HAN 0–1 MAT · HAN 2–0 MAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 30 Aug

H&H EXPORT

DLLWWL1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–4

MATAGALPA

LWLLLL0–1 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 1–4 · 1–5 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	13	+28	35
2	Diriangén	13	+13	30
3	UNAN Managua	13	+4	24
4	Real Estelí	13	+11	22
5	Walter Ferretti	13	+4	17
6	H&H Export	12	−7	17
7	San Marcos	13	−8	11
8	Jalapa	13	−8	9
9	Matagalpa	12	−22	9
10	Rancho Santana	13	−15	6