H&H Export v Jalapa prediction · Primera Division

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 05:30

H&H Export 1–4 Jalapa H&H EXPORT WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said H&H Export win~~43%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.733

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.784

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

H&H Export are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: H&H Export 43%, draw 27%, Jalapa 31%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on H&H Export v JalapaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

H&H Export win43%

Draw27%

Jalapa win31%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:00

RoundApertura · matchday 13

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

H&H Export

Jalapa

3Days since last match2

Last match: 15 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

Last match: 16 Oct · Primera Division (Nicaragua)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	H&H Export	11	−4	17
9	Jalapa	12	−11	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · h&h export winFirst published 16 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

43% The market44%

Us43%

~~Market~~44%

We make H&H Export a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · H&H Export v Jalapa~~1.43 – 1.17

~~Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 30 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 6~~5 v 9

~~The market · H&H Export win~~44% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · H&H Export win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
H&H Export win	43%	44%	−1
Draw	27%	27%	0
Jalapa win	31%	28%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	48%	51%	−3
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	27%	31%	−4
H&H Export or draw	69%	72%	−3
H&H Export clean sheet	31%	–	–
Jalapa clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.8 8.4 5.1 2.0 1 10.3 12.6 7.2 2.8 2 7.6 8.8 5.1 2.0 3 3.6 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+H&H Export down, Jalapa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,046 Primera Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 60 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.30 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

H&H Export at home: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Jalapa away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for H&H Export, 1.17 for Jalapa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.30

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JAL 0–1 HAN · JAL 1–0 HAN · HAN 0–0 JAL · HAN 2–2 JAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Division this season · since 30 Aug

H&H EXPORT

LDLLWW0–5 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–0

JALAPA

LDLDLD0–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	13	+28	35
2	Diriangén	12	+12	27
3	UNAN Managua	13	+4	24
4	Real Estelí	12	+13	22
5	H&H Export	11	−4	17
6	Walter Ferretti	12	+2	14
7	San Marcos	13	−8	11
8	Matagalpa	12	−22	9
9	Jalapa	12	−11	6
10	Rancho Santana	12	−14	6