Home › Football › Primera Division › Diriangén v Walter Ferretti

Diriangén v Walter Ferretti

Diriangén

2–4Full time

Walter Ferretti

Primera Division · SUN 11 OCT

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:10

Diriangén 2–4 Walter Ferretti DIRIANGÉN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Diriangén win~~70%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.317

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.052

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Diriangén win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Diriangén was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 71% now. 0–0 · 71–18–11
1′KICK-OFF Diriangén v Walter Ferretti
3′Much as we predicted: Diriangén was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 70–18–11
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Diriangén 1–0 Walter Ferretti
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Diriangén 1–0 Walter Ferretti
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Diriangén 1–1 Walter Ferretti
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Diriangén 2–1 Walter Ferretti
45′HALF-TIME Diriangén 1–1 Walter Ferretti
46′SECOND HALF Diriangén 1–1 Walter Ferretti
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Diriangén 1–2 Walter Ferretti
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Diriangén 2–1 Walter Ferretti
80′🟥 RED CARD · 79' Walter Ferretti
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Diriangén 2–2 Walter Ferretti
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Diriangén 2–3 Walter Ferretti
FTFULL TIME Diriangén 2–4 Walter Ferretti
FTDiriangén 2–4 Walter Ferretti · Diriangén win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Diriangén win70%

Draw18%

Walter Ferretti win11%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 01:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · diriangén winPublished 11 Oct 01:01

70% The market58%

Us70%

~~Market~~58%

We make Diriangén a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · diriangén win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Diriangén win	70%	58%	+12
Draw	18%	23%	−4
Walter Ferretti win	11%	19%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	57%	60%	−2
Both teams to score	47%	57%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	80%	80%	0
Over 3.5 goals	35%	39%	−3
Diriangén or draw	89%	81%	+8
Diriangén clean sheet	47%	–	–
Walter Ferretti clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.4%

0123450 5.3 3.7 1 11.0 8.7 3.3 2 12.4 9.3 3.6 3 9.2 6.9 2.7 4 5.2 3.9 5 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Diriangén down, Walter Ferretti across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,035 Primera Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.9% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

25 previous meetings, 2.68 goals a meeting; 10 of 25 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Diriangén at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Walter Ferretti away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for Diriangén, 0.76 for Walter Ferretti. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

25 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.68

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 25

~~Both scored~~12 of 25

~~Last meetings~~WAL 1–3 DIR · WAL 2–5 DIR · DIR 3–1 WAL · DIR 3–0 WAL

Form · last six in Primera Division

DIRIANGÉN

WWDWWW2–0 · 2–0 · 3–3 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

WALTER FERRETTI

WLLDLD3–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Managua	10	+23	26
2	Diriangén	10	+12	24
3	UNAN Managua	10	+5	20
4	Real Estelí	10	+10	18
5	San Marcos	10	−4	11
6	H&H Export	9	−8	11
7	Matagalpa	9	−12	9
8	Walter Ferretti	10	−4	8
9	Jalapa	10	−10	5
10	Rancho Santana	10	−12	5