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Willem II U21 v Twente / Heracles U21

Willem II U21

1–3Full time

Twente / Heracles U21

U21 Divisie 1 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 16:32

Willem II U21 1–3 Twente / Heracles U21 WILLEM II U21 WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Willem II U21 win~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.646

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Willem II U21 win45%

Draw19%

Twente / Heracles U21 win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · willem ii u21 winPublished 10 Oct 23:45

45% The market–

Us45%

We make Willem II U21 a 45% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.9, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Willem II U21 win	45%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Twente / Heracles U21 win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	76%	–	–
Both teams to score	73%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	90%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	57%	–	–
Willem II U21 or draw	64%	–	–
Willem II U21 clean sheet	16%	–	–
Twente / Heracles U21 clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.6%

0123450 4.1 3.3 2.1 1 4.5 6.7 6.8 4.3 2.1 2 4.1 7.6 7.0 4.4 2.1 3 2.9 5.3 5.0 3.1 4 2.9 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Willem II U21 down, Twente / Heracles U21 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 555 U21 Divisie 1 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

U21 Divisie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 69.0% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Willem II U21 at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Twente / Heracles U21 away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.12 goals for Willem II U21, 1.89 for Twente / Heracles U21. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WIL 3–2 TWE · TWE 1–0 WIL · TWE 2–1 WIL · WIL 3–4 TWE

Form · last six in U21 Divisie 1

WILLEM II U21

LWLDLL2–4 · 3–2 · 0–1 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 0–2

TWENTE / HERACLES U21

LLLDLW2–3 · 0–3 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord U21	4	+11	12
2	De Graafschap U21	5	+2	9
3	PEC Zwolle U21	5	0	9
4	Cambuur U21	4	+7	7
5	Groningen U21	4	+2	7
6	Twente / Heracles U21	5	−8	4
7	Go Ahead Eagles U21	5	−10	2
8	Willem II U21	4	−4	1