Twente / Heracles U21 v PEC Zwolle U21 prediction · U21 Divisie 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Twente / Heracles U21DrawPEC Zwolle U21

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Twente / Heracles U21 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Twente / Heracles U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Twente / Heracles U21 50%, draw 19%, PEC Zwolle U21 30%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Twente / Heracles U21 v PEC Zwolle U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Twente / Heracles U21 win50%

Draw19%

PEC Zwolle U21 win30%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 11:30

RoundFall season · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Twente / Heracles U21

PEC Zwolle U21

17Days since last match17

Last match: 10 Oct · U21 Divisie 1

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	PEC Zwolle U21	6	−1	9
6	Twente / Heracles U21	6	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · twente / heracles u21 winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Twente / Heracles U21 a 50% chance to win. The model expects 2.2–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Twente / Heracles U21 v PEC Zwolle U21~~2.15 – 1.63

~~Form · U21 Divisie 1 this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~6 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Twente / Heracles U21 win	50%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
PEC Zwolle U21 win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Twente / Heracles U21 or draw	70%	–	–
Twente / Heracles U21 clean sheet	20%	–	–
PEC Zwolle U21 clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.4%

0123450 4.4 3.1 1 5.6 7.4 6.4 3.5 2 5.3 8.4 6.8 3.7 3 3.8 6.0 4.8 2.7 4 2.1 3.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Twente / Heracles U21 down, PEC Zwolle U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 561 U21 Divisie 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U21 Divisie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 3 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Twente / Heracles U21 at home: 3.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). PEC Zwolle U21 away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Twente / Heracles U21, 1.63 for PEC Zwolle U21. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~PEC 5–2 TWE · TWE 0–1 PEC · PEC 1–1 TWE · TWE 0–0 PEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U21 Divisie 1 this season · since 29 Aug

TWENTE / HERACLES U21

LLDLWW0–3 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 3–1

PEC ZWOLLE U21

WLWLWL1–0 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord U21	6	+18	18
2	Cambuur U21	5	+8	10
3	PEC Zwolle U21	6	−1	9
4	De Graafschap U21	7	−3	9
5	Groningen U21	6	−1	8
6	Twente / Heracles U21	6	−6	7
7	Go Ahead Eagles U21	6	−9	5
8	Willem II U21	6	−6	2