Twente / Heracles U21 v De Graafschap U21 prediction · U21 Divisie 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Twente / Heracles U21DrawDe Graafschap U21

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Twente / Heracles U21 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Twente / Heracles U21 are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Twente / Heracles U21 43%, draw 21%, De Graafschap U21 36%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on Twente / Heracles U21 v De Graafschap U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Twente / Heracles U21 win43%

Draw21%

De Graafschap U21 win36%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:30

RoundFall season · matchday 8

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Twente / Heracles U21

De Graafschap U21

14Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · U21 Divisie 1

Last match: 17 Oct · U21 Divisie 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	De Graafschap U21	7	−3	9
6	Twente / Heracles U21	6	−6	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · twente / heracles u21 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 21 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Twente / Heracles U21 a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Twente / Heracles U21 v De Graafschap U21~~1.85 – 1.68

~~Form · last six in U21 Divisie 1 this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~6 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Twente / Heracles U21 win

Published at 41%, 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Twente / Heracles U21 win	43%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
De Graafschap U21 win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	47%	–	–
Twente / Heracles U21 or draw	64%	–	–
Twente / Heracles U21 clean sheet	19%	–	–
De Graafschap U21 clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.4 5.7 4.2 2.3 1 6.2 8.4 7.5 4.2 2 5.0 8.3 6.9 3.9 3 3.1 5.1 4.3 2.4 4 2.4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Twente / Heracles U21 down, De Graafschap U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 561 U21 Divisie 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U21 Divisie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Twente / Heracles U21 at home: 3.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). De Graafschap U21 away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for Twente / Heracles U21, 1.68 for De Graafschap U21. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEG 0–2 TWE · TWE 1–2 DEG · DEG 5–0 TWE · DEG 2–2 TWE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in U21 Divisie 1 this season · since 29 Aug

TWENTE / HERACLES U21

LLDLWW0–3 · 0–4 · 1–1 · 1–4 · 2–0 · 3–1

DE GRAAFSCHAP U21

WWWLLL3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord U21	6	+18	18
2	Cambuur U21	5	+8	10
3	PEC Zwolle U21	6	−1	9
4	De Graafschap U21	7	−3	9
5	Groningen U21	6	−1	8
6	Twente / Heracles U21	6	−6	7
7	Go Ahead Eagles U21	6	−9	5
8	Willem II U21	6	−6	2