Groningen U21 v Willem II U21 prediction · U21 Divisie 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Groningen U21DrawWillem II U21

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Groningen U21 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Groningen U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Groningen U21 51%, draw 21%, Willem II U21 28%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Groningen U21 v Willem II U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Groningen U21 win51%

Draw21%

Willem II U21 win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundFall season · matchday 1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Groningen U21

Willem II U21

11Days since last match11

Last match: 13 Oct · U21 Divisie 1

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Groningen U21	6	−1	8
8	Willem II U21	6	−6	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · groningen u21 winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Groningen U21 a 51% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Groningen U21 v Willem II U21~~1.94 – 1.37

~~Form · U21 Divisie 1 this season · since 29 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 2~~5 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Groningen U21 win	51%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Willem II U21 win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Groningen U21 or draw	72%	–	–
Groningen U21 clean sheet	26%	–	–
Willem II U21 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.1 5.8 3.5 1 7.9 9.0 6.6 3.0 2 6.9 9.2 6.3 2.9 3 4.5 5.9 4.0 4 2.2 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Groningen U21 down, Willem II U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 561 U21 Divisie 1 matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U21 Divisie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.88 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Groningen U21 at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Willem II U21 away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Groningen U21, 1.37 for Willem II U21. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.88

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~WIL 0–0 GRO · WIL 1–1 GRO · GRO 0–4 WIL · GRO 1–0 WIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U21 Divisie 1 this season · since 29 Aug

GRONINGEN U21

WWLDLD2–1 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–0

WILLEM II U21

LDLLLD0–1 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord U21	6	+18	18
2	Cambuur U21	5	+8	10
3	PEC Zwolle U21	6	−1	9
4	De Graafschap U21	7	−3	9
5	Groningen U21	6	−1	8
6	Twente / Heracles U21	6	−6	7
7	Go Ahead Eagles U21	6	−9	5
8	Willem II U21	6	−6	2